Game Recap: OTT 4, DET 3, March 27, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT4

FinalThu, Mar 27, 2025Every game that night

DET3

OTT beat DET 4-3, with the chances close: 3.84 expected goals to 3.24. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Ullmark stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	2	1	1	4
DET	0	0	3	3

1st 5:49OTTT. Chabot0.16 xG
1st 13:01OTTT. Stützle0.09 xG
2nd 1:33OTTD. Perron0.26 xG
3rd 5:25DETP. KanePP0.23 xG
3rd 8:44OTTM. Amadio0.20 xG
3rd 11:50DETL. Raymond0.15 xG
3rd 15:30DETV. Tarasenko0.16 xG

Team Stats

OTTDET

32Shots on goal34

3.84Expected goals3.24

54Shot attempts60

265v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play1/6

27Hits23

13Blocked shots11

17Penalty minutes9

10Giveaways5

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.84 xGDET 3.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT31 on goal, 4 scored

DET33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	2	16:00	2:02
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:04	2:24
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	5	0	+1	0	15:03	2:01
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	10:58	2:01
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	10:43	0:02
M. Highmore	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:36	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	20:42	1:25
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	18:39	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	6	4	0	+1	7	16:21	1:08
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	0	16:00	1:54
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	14:43	1:50
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	7:50	0:57
T. Chabot	D	1	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	24:11	1:54
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	25:57	0:09
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	25:14	2:06
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	22:27	0:07
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	11:02	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	34	31	3	.912	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	-1	0	21:10	7:49
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	26:02	8:09
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	2	25:22	8:04
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:37	2:07
V. Tarasenko	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:23	2:14
M. Kasper	C	0	1	1	4	6	0	+1	0	14:05	2:34
C. Smith	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	11:11	0:00
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	27:12	8:20
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	11:34	2:13
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	10:45	0:00
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:16	0:00
A. Watson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	3:34	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	-2	0	27:26	7:58
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	5	20:21	2:31
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	17:50	0:15
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:42	0:11
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:21	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	10	7	3	.700	21:33
C. Talbot	22	21	1	.955	37:01	Loss

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex DeBrincat DET Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20231 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, DET 3.4	OTT 4, DET 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	OTT 27.6, DET 30.1	OTT 32, DET 34
Win chance	DET 56%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	6	0.78	0	31%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.9	3	0.94	0	34%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	4	0.79	1	30%	0
DET P. Kane	2.3	5	0.82	1	25%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.2	2	0.88	2	28%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.51	1	10%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	1	0.58	0	9%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	5	0.59	0	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	2	0.73	1	24%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	2	0.95	1	27%	1
DET M. Seider	1.8	2	0.52	0	9%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.55	1	22%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	1	0.50	0	21%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.8	4	0.48	1	20%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	2	0.42	1	18%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	2	0.58	1	23%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	1	0.68	0	23%	0
DET C. Smith	1.5	1	0.32	1	15%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	3	0.46	0	19%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.39	0	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	0	0.23	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	0	0.50	1	18%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	0	0.08	0	2%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	3	0.37	1	18%	1
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DET T. Motte	1.0	3	0.17	0	9%	0
DET J. Petry	1.0	1	0.31	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	3	0.40	0	9%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	1	0.14	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	0.9	0	0.22	0	12%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.8	1	0.20	1	8%	0
DET A. Watson	0.8	1	0.17	0	11%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
DET D. Shine	0.7	0	0.19	0	8%	0
DET J. Holl	0.6	1	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.