Game Recap: OTT 3, DET 4 (OT), January 18, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT3

Final/OTSun, Jan 18, 2026Every game that night

DET4

DET beat OTT 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.10 expected goals to 2.82. DET outshot OTT 34 to 22. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. DeBrincat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Gibson stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	2	1	0	0	3
DET	1	2	0	1	4

1st 4:26OTTD. Batherson0.03 xG
1st 5:05OTTD. CozensPP0.16 xG
1st 7:16DETA. Sandin-PellikkaPP0.05 xG
2nd 6:06DETL. Raymond0.08 xG
2nd 16:53DETJ. van RiemsdykPP0.79 xG
2nd 19:05OTTS. PintoPP0.17 xG
OT 0:36DETA. DeBrincat0.16 xG

Team Stats

OTTDET

22Shots on goal34

2.82Expected goals4.10

48Shot attempts67

165v5 shots on goal19

2/3Power play2/5

24Hits19

10Blocked shots11

12Penalty minutes10

11Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.82 xGDET 4.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT20 on goal, 3 scored

DET34 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	14:37	1:31
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	17:55	1:05
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	16:50	1:52
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	4	16:42	1:32
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:23	1:32
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	13:46	0:46
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	2	11:11	1:51
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	19:57	1:52
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:24	1:31
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:51	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:20	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+1	2	19:42	1:54
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	26:06	1:29
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:26	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:38	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:44	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	34	30	4	.882	60:08	OT loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	7	1	1	+1	0	23:14	5:19
A. Copp	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	2	19:51	3:01
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:03	4:21
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	19:24	5:16
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:19	5:28
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:21	3:20
M. Kasper	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	13:42	1:38
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:44	2:55
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	12:14	0:07
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:58	0:07
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	4	11:38	0:07
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:26	2:07
B. Chiarot	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:39	0:07
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	14:02	3:38
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	22:36	4:45
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	21:58	0:07
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	17:33	0:07
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	22	19	3	.864	59:57	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens14:23R. Greig14:41B. Tkachuk13:22

Line 2D. Batherson12:46F. Zetterlund13:00T. Stützle11:30

Line 3M. Amadio11:34S. Pinto12:15C. Giroux10:15

Line 4D. Perron9:03L. Eller8:49N. Cousins9:03

Pair 1J. Sanderson18:05A. Zub16:26

Pair 2N. Jensen16:33T. Chabot15:50

Pair 3T. Kleven13:20J. Spence14:05

DET

Line 1P. Kane16:20A. Copp16:02A. DeBrincat17:27

Line 2E. Soderblom11:31M. Appleton10:28M. Rasmussen10:35

Line 3D. Larkin11:58L. Raymond10:26M. Kasper10:27

Line 4J. Compher8:22E. Finnie8:27J. Riemsdyk8:47

Pair 1S. Edvinsson20:54M. Seider17:15

Pair 2B. Chiarot19:12A. Sandin-Pellikka10:24

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker11:10A. Johansson15:15

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces OTT, his team until Dec 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, DET 3.3	OTT 3, DET 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	OTT 27.7, DET 25.8	OTT 22, DET 34
Win chance	DET 53%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	3	0.69	1	28%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	7	0.94	2	34%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.5	4	0.90	1	33%	0
DET P. Kane	2.3	1	0.78	1	23%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	2	0.87	0	27%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	1	0.65	0	12%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.70	2	24%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.0	3	0.51	1	19%	1
DET L. Raymond	1.9	2	0.94	1	26%	1
DET M. Seider	1.9	2	0.65	0	11%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	1	0.53	1	23%	1
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	1	0.49	1	11%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.7	3	0.62	1	22%	1
DET A. Copp	1.6	2	0.62	2	19%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	2	0.59	1	19%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	0	0.38	0	14%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	3	0.32	1	15%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	2	0.32	1	15%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.4	0	0.43	1	18%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.4	1	0.36	0	16%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	0	0.44	0	11%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	0	0.35	0	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	1	0.32	0	5%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	2	0.29	0	13%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	1	0.33	0	12%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	1	0.23	1	7%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	2	0.42	0	16%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	0	0.15	0	3%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	0	0.23	0	9%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	1	0.19	0	9%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.23	0	4%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.7	1	0.28	1	7%	1
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	1	0.17	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	2	0.18	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.