Game Recap: OTT 3, DET 2, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

DET2

OTT beat DET 3-2, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.59. DET outshot OTT 35 to 21. C. Yakemchuk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Seider had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. L. Ullmark stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	2	0	3
DET	0	1	1	2

1st 17:15OTTB. TkachukPP0.11 xG
2nd 9:28OTTC. Yakemchuk0.11 xG
2nd 11:05OTTL. Eller0.14 xG
2nd 14:50DETD. Shine0.04 xG
3rd 4:13DETD. LarkinPP0.22 xG

Team Stats

OTTDET

21Shots on goal35

2.56Expected goals2.59

47Shot attempts63

175v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play1/4

26Hits13

9Blocked shots14

15Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways16

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.56 xGDET 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT20 on goal, 3 scored

DET35 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	1	3	0	+1	2	15:48	2:06
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	-1	0	17:33	2:17
L. Eller	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	10:23	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:06	0:36
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:57	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	2	18:45	0:00
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:13	2:02
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	13:41	2:03
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:23	0:37
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	2	12:20	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:04	0:22
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:03	0:33
C. Yakemchuk	D	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	0	12:46	1:22
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	5	25:10	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	28:11	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	26:24	1:17
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	2	19:57	0:00
J. Donovan	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	2	22:38	5:05
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	22:04	4:51
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	5	21:19	4:49
D. Shine	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	5:17	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:50	2:27
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:41	4:35
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:12	2:09
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:51	0:06
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:40	2:45
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:32	0:42
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	11:16	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	10:28	2:34
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	7	2	2	+1	0	28:38	4:59
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	3	3	3	+1	2	21:32	0:57
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	21:53	1:49
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	18:43	0:02
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:52	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	9:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	21	18	3	.857	58:16	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens13:11R. Greig14:57B. Tkachuk13:05

Line 2M. Amadio14:07S. Pinto12:45N. Cousins12:20

Line 3D. Batherson11:38T. Stützle12:09C. Giroux11:11

Line 4W. Foegele9:30F. Zetterlund9:42L. Eller9:47

Pair 1J. Spence23:19N. Matinpalo17:42

Pair 2T. Kleven20:58A. Zub17:50

DET

Line 1L. Raymond15:29D. Larkin14:33E. Finnie14:01

Line 2P. Kane13:22A. DeBrincat14:55A. Copp14:27

Line 3D. Perron8:46M. Appleton11:16J. Compher14:01

Line 4J. Riemsdyk7:45M. Kasper9:56D. Shine5:17

Pair 1M. Seider20:34S. Edvinsson19:40

Pair 2B. Chiarot17:45J. Faulk19:39

Pair 3A. Johansson10:00J. Bernard-Docker8:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces OTT, his team until Dec 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, DET 2.9	OTT 3, DET 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	OTT 27.8, DET 24.4	OTT 21, DET 35
Win chance	OTT 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	1	0.76	2	30%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	4	1.05	1	38%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.6	5	0.86	1	34%	1
DET P. Kane	2.6	3	0.91	0	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	2	0.58	0	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	2	0.87	1	28%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	1	0.97	1	29%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	0	0.54	0	23%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	3	0.69	0	24%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	7	0.67	1	11%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	1	0.39	0	18%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	1	0.33	0	16%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.5	2	0.47	0	10%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.5	0	0.42	0	7%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	0	0.60	0	18%	0
DET D. Perron	1.5	2	0.51	0	22%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	3	0.35	0	15%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.4	2	0.38	0	17%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	0	0.53	0	21%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.4	1	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.3	1	0.27	0	12%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.3	0	0.47	0	16%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	0	0.40	0	18%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.20	0	7%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.2	1	0.42	0	16%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.28	1	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	3	0.36	1	11%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.0	1	0.19	1	9%	1
DET M. Appleton	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	2	0.11	0	2%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	1	0.15	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
DET D. Shine	0.6	1	0.15	1	8%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.