Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
OTT3
FinalTue, Oct 6, 2026Every game that night
DET5

DET beat OTT 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.22 expected goals to 2.52. DET outshot OTT 36 to 25. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Raymond had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Gibson stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT1113
DET2215
  1. 1st 2:44OTTT. Stützle0.18 xG
  2. 1st 3:16DETA. DeBrincat0.17 xG
  3. 1st 13:14DETD. Larkin0.26 xG
  4. 2nd 2:01DETV. ArvidssonPP0.42 xG
  5. 2nd 4:30DETJ. Faulk0.13 xG
  6. 2nd 6:08OTTD. BathersonPP0.19 xG
  7. 3rd 10:30OTTW. Eklund0.11 xG
  8. 3rd 19:10DETA. DeBrincatEN0.65 xG

Team Stats

OTTDET
25Shots on goal36
2.52Expected goals4.22
51Shot attempts61
155v5 shots on goal26
1/5Power play2/5
31Hits28
16Blocked shots16
18Penalty minutes18
15Giveaways17
5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.52 xGDET 4.22 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTT goal, 2:44DET goal, 3:16DET goal, 13:14DET goal, 2:01DET goal, 4:30OTT goal, 6:08OTT goal, 10:30DET goal, 19:10

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT24 on goal, 3 scored
DET34 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC1122500021:374:46
W. EklundLW112301+1020:094:51
D. BathersonRW1122500417:074:45
F. ZetterlundLW011041+1015:002:35
R. GreigC0112200613:100:44
D. CozensC0001410021:294:51
S. PintoC0001200416:372:59
M. AmadioRW000000-1015:390:00
C. GirouxRW0000000015:283:35
S. HallidayC000210-1010:372:56
W. FoegeleLW000000-108:510:00
N. CousinsC000040-226:020:00
C. YakemchukD011200-1017:074:31
T. ChabotD0005130026:123:43
J. SpenceD000111-1022:290:57
T. KlevenD000215-1018:580:00
N. MatinpaloD0002140216:350:00
C. CrottyD000000+1010:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson35314.88657:56Loss
J. Johansson000–0:00

DET Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. RaymondLW033601-1019:476:01
A. DeBrincatRW213301+2418:455:54
D. LarkinC1124010220:416:01
V. ArvidssonLW1123000017:205:00
N. DanielsonC011100+108:020:00
C. MazurLW011110+107:250:00
M. RasmussenC0000710020:052:14
A. CoppC0003110218:242:02
E. FinnieC0002110018:172:04
K. KolesarRW0001630215:070:00
M. Brandsegg-NygårdRW0001500012:370:00
J. FaulkD112300+3018:212:34
W. WallinderD011001+209:070:00
M. SeiderD000330-1224:016:25
B. ChiarotD000121-1418:140:06
A. JohanssonD000021+1217:130:00
A. JohanssonD000302-1017:000:00
A. Sandin-PellikkaD000102-1011:272:09
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Gibson25223.88059:54Win
D. Tarasov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens15:08F. Zetterlund12:09W. Eklund13:46
Line 2T. Stützle10:51D. Batherson11:21R. Greig10:46
Line 3M. Amadio12:11S. Pinto9:03C. Giroux9:33
Line 4W. Foegele7:46S. Halliday7:20N. Cousins6:02
Pair 1N. Matinpalo13:43C. Crotty10:45
Pair 2T. Chabot16:27J. Spence16:16
Pair 3C. Yakemchuk12:07T. Kleven14:51

DET

Line 1A. Copp12:08K. Kolesar11:56M. Rasmussen12:45
Line 2V. Arvidsson12:12L. Raymond12:36D. Larkin11:19
Line 3A. DeBrincat12:32E. Finnie12:47M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:22
Line 4N. Danielson7:51C. Mazur7:16
Pair 1M. Seider14:10A. Johansson13:07
Pair 2B. Chiarot14:16A. Sandin-Pellikka9:09
Pair 3A. Johansson13:04J. Faulk12:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 20 overs hit (55%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
DET A. DeBrincat2.5-185+1253Over
OTT D. Batherson2.5+136-1702Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+120-1401Under
DET D. Larkin2.5-140+1254Over
DET L. Raymond2.5+142-1556Over
OTT S. Pinto2.5+160-1751Under
OTT T. Stützle2.5+170-1982Under
DET V. Arvidsson2.5-140+1153Over
DET A. Copp1.5-140-1053Over
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka1.5+145-1951Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5-140+1100Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.5+110-1302Over
DET E. Finnie1.5-120-1202Over
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-106-1050Under
DET J. Faulk1.5-105-1203Over
OTT J. Spence1.5-110-1101Under
DET M. Seider1.5-160+1423Over
OTT T. Chabot1.5-170+1425Over
OTT W. Eklund1.5-148+1203Over
OTT W. Foegele1.5-120+1000Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.0, DET 3.5OTT 3, DET 5
Total goals6.58
Shots on goalOTT 27.2, DET 27.0OTT 25, DET 36
Win chanceDET 57%DET won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DET A. DeBrincat2.830.91334%2
DET V. Arvidsson2.730.86231%1
OTT D. Cozens2.510.62023%0
OTT T. Stützle2.320.95229%1
DET L. Raymond2.260.99330%0
OTT D. Batherson2.120.76227%1
OTT S. Pinto2.110.56023%0
OTT T. Chabot2.050.57013%0
DET M. Seider1.930.68011%0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård1.910.28013%0
OTT W. Eklund1.830.53215%1
OTT C. Giroux1.700.56018%0
OTT R. Greig1.720.43116%0
OTT J. Spence1.710.4608%0
DET J. Faulk1.630.48212%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.500.33114%0
DET E. Finnie1.420.42018%0
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.420.3916%0
OTT T. Kleven1.320.2505%0
DET A. Copp1.330.51016%0
OTT W. Foegele1.300.27014%0
OTT M. Amadio1.200.43019%0
OTT S. Halliday1.220.36013%0
DET B. Chiarot1.110.2007%0
DET M. Rasmussen1.100.30014%0
DET N. Danielson0.910.25110%0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka0.910.2908%0
OTT N. Cousins0.900.2309%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.720.1002%0
DET K. Kolesar0.710.23010%0
DET C. Mazur0.710.18111%0
OTT C. Crotty0.700.1303%0
DET A. Johansson0.730.1505%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.