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Game Recap
OTT1
EDM3
EDM beat OTT 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.15 expected goals to 1.46. V. Arvidsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Skinner stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| EDM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 14:26EDMV. Arvidsson0.32 xG
- 2nd 0:25OTTN. Cousins0.16 xG
- 2nd 14:05EDMZ. HymanPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 1:38EDMA. Henrique0.12 xG
Team Stats
OTTEDM
21Shots on goal21
1.46Expected goals3.15
61Shot attempts40
165v5 shots on goal11
0/1Power play1/5
16Hits11
6Blocked shots24
12Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways17
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 1.46 xGEDM 3.15 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Cousins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:35 | 1:02 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:58 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 0:55 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 1:07 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:41 | 1:05 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:04 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16:20 | 0:56 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:53 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:14 | 0:48 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 24:35 | 1:12 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 7 | 6 | 1 | .857 | 20:00 | |
| L. Meriläinen | 14 | 12 | 2 | .857 | 36:39 | Loss |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 5:32 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:40 | 6:10 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:39 | 5:53 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:21 | 5:55 |
| A. Henrique | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | 3:20 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:22 | 3:20 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 3:13 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:58 | 3:11 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:18 | 6:11 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 | 3:10 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.8, EDM 3.7 | OTT 1, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 27.1, EDM 31.5 | OTT 21, EDM 21 |
| Win chance | EDM 63% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.4 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.3 | 2 | 1.73 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.1 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.8 | 2 | 1.41 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.4 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.59 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.8 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.6 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.6 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.0 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.