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Game Recap
OTT4
Final/OTTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night
EDM5

EDM beat OTT 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.58 expected goals to 2.18. EDM outshot OTT 37 to 21. L. Draisaitl led the way with 5 points (2 G, 3 A). R. Nugent-Hopkins had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. C. Ingram stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
OTT22004
EDM20215
  1. 1st 3:34OTTD. Cozens0.15 xG
  2. 1st 5:03EDML. Draisaitl0.22 xG
  3. 1st 6:34OTTD. BathersonPP0.10 xG
  4. 1st 16:48EDML. Draisaitl0.05 xG
  5. 2nd 4:30OTTD. Batherson0.10 xG
  6. 2nd 5:11OTTM. Amadio0.17 xG
  7. 3rd 1:52EDMR. Nugent-HopkinsPP0.19 xG
  8. 3rd 18:35EDMZ. Hyman0.20 xG
  9. OT 1:50EDME. BouchardPP0.17 xG

Team Stats

OTTEDM
21Shots on goal37
2.18Expected goals4.58
48Shot attempts66
185v5 shots on goal27
1/3Power play2/3
14Hits24
9Blocked shots14
11Penalty minutes11
15Giveaways21
5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.18 xGEDM 4.58 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdOTOTT goal, 3:34EDM goal, 5:03OTT goal, 6:34EDM goal, 16:48OTT goal, 4:30OTT goal, 5:11EDM goal, 1:52EDM goal, 18:35EDM goal, 1:50

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT21 on goal, 4 scored
EDM35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC022000-1019:153:19
D. BathersonRW202311-1017:223:18
M. AmadioRW101111+1019:260:00
B. TkachukLW011110-1219:183:24
D. CozensC101320+1014:583:14
N. CousinsC011010+1013:370:00
S. PintoC000122-1221:000:01
R. GreigC0001210516:470:00
C. GirouxRW000100-1015:491:44
F. ZetterlundLW0000100010:321:29
L. EllerC000201+107:270:00
S. HallidayC000100+106:561:34
T. ChabotD011201+2023:181:32
N. JensenD011110+2020:260:00
J. SandersonD000300-1025:363:23
A. ZubD000101-1022:150:00
J. SpenceD000001-1014:191:37
T. KlevenD000020-1213:550:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark37325.86561:50OT loss
J. Reimer000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
L. DraisaitlC235401+2023:083:35
C. McDavidC0224110027:373:29
Z. HymanLW1015030022:513:31
R. Nugent-HopkinsC101522+1021:182:35
M. SavoieC011200+1016:320:38
J. RoslovicC000210+1014:350:40
K. KapanenRW000220-1013:090:00
V. PodkolzinRW000260-1712:130:39
A. HenriqueC000001-1010:310:00
T. FredericC000030-1010:210:00
J. SamanskiC000120008:080:00
C. LazarC000030002:250:00
E. BouchardD112401-1228:373:41
M. EkholmD011200+1025:140:34
D. NurseD000131+1220:380:00
T. EmbersonD000212+1016:580:00
S. StastneyD0000010016:340:00
J. WalmanD000101-2011:180:28
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Ingram21174.81061:13Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1S. Pinto18:59M. Amadio17:38N. Cousins13:37
Line 2C. Giroux13:21T. Stützle13:56D. Batherson14:04
Line 3B. Tkachuk14:27R. Greig13:57D. Cozens11:44
Line 4L. Eller7:22F. Zetterlund8:58S. Halliday5:17
Pair 1N. Jensen19:49T. Chabot19:40
Pair 2J. Sanderson18:42A. Zub19:05
Pair 3T. Kleven12:57J. Spence12:37

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman18:48C. McDavid20:11R. Nugent-Hopkins15:56
Line 2J. Roslovic13:55M. Savoie13:16L. Draisaitl18:01
Line 3V. Podkolzin11:34J. Samanski8:08T. Frederic10:16
Line 4A. Henrique7:57K. Kapanen13:04C. Lazar2:25
Pair 1M. Ekholm21:54E. Bouchard21:34
Pair 2D. Nurse19:27T. Emberson15:38
Pair 3S. Stastney14:45J. Walman9:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.1, EDM 3.3OTT 4, EDM 5
Total goals6.49
Shots on goalOTT 27.3, EDM 27.3OTT 21, EDM 37
Win chanceEDM 53%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.410.76128%0
EDM C. McDavid3.341.66239%0
EDM Z. Hyman2.950.93140%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.741.41542%2
EDM E. Bouchard2.541.01219%1
OTT T. Stützle2.200.90227%0
OTT D. Cozens2.130.61121%1
OTT S. Pinto2.110.59024%0
OTT D. Batherson2.130.75225%2
EDM D. Nurse1.910.36010%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.950.87125%1
EDM J. Walman1.810.44012%0
OTT J. Sanderson1.830.64011%0
EDM J. Roslovic1.820.50021%0
OTT T. Chabot1.620.51111%0
OTT R. Greig1.610.41015%0
EDM K. Kapanen1.620.42015%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.520.45110%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.420.40015%0
OTT C. Giroux1.410.56018%0
OTT M. Amadio1.410.45120%1
OTT N. Cousins1.400.34113%0
EDM M. Savoie1.320.37114%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.200.27012%0
EDM A. Henrique1.100.28014%0
OTT J. Spence1.100.3506%0
OTT S. Halliday1.110.37011%0
EDM T. Frederic1.000.22013%0
OTT T. Kleven1.000.1903%0
OTT A. Zub1.010.2806%0
OTT L. Eller0.820.1908%0
EDM S. Stastney0.800.1704%0
EDM T. Emberson0.720.2104%0
OTT N. Jensen0.610.2414%0
EDM C. Lazar0.600.1707%0
EDM J. Samanski0.610.3109%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.