Game Recap: OTT 2, LAK 5, November 30, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT2

FinalSat, Nov 30, 2024Every game that night

LAK5

LAK beat OTT 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.06 expected goals to 1.88. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Rittich stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	1	0	2
LAK	1	1	3	5

1st 1:57LAKA. Laferriere0.02 xG
1st 19:14OTTT. Stützle0.12 xG
2nd 6:11OTTA. Gaudette0.06 xG
2nd 7:26LAKK. Fiala0.16 xG
3rd 1:37LAKA. Kopitar0.29 xG
3rd 16:14LAKA. KempePP0.15 xG
3rd 18:26LAKT. MooreEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

OTTLAK

22Shots on goal27

1.88Expected goals3.06

57Shot attempts56

215v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play1/3

31Hits36

14Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes2

10Giveaways10

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 1.88 xGLAK 3.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT22 on goal, 2 scored

LAK26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	21:03	1:20
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	4	1	+1	0	18:14	1:21
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	15:34	0:39
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	15:24	1:21
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	4	2	-2	0	17:58	0:42
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	16:57	1:18
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:38	0:39
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:18	0:40
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:53	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:01	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	3	6	0	-2	0	11:01	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	22:58	0:26
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:40	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	24:19	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	21:15	1:34
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:34	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	26	22	4	.846	58:25	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	20:38	3:14
A. Kopitar	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	20:30	3:14
T. Moore	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	16:41	0:09
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	3	4	4	0	0	20:34	3:15
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	2	4	0	+3	0	18:18	1:40
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	2	18:13	3:18
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	17:15	1:36
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:05	1:31
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	13:28	0:10
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:43	1:34
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	7:08	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:14	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	23:14	0:06
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	18:28	1:29
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	20:59	0:11
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	+2	0	19:28	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	3	1	5	+1	0	18:52	3:23
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	14:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
E. Portillo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnton Forsberg LAK Faces OTT, his team until May 202522 saves on 26
Old teamJordan Spence OTT Faces LAK, his team until May 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.9, LAK 3.0	OTT 2, LAK 5
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	OTT 27.2, LAK 28.2	OTT 22, LAK 27
Win chance	LAK 53%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	3	0.83	1	31%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	3	0.96	1	36%	1
LAK K. Fiala	2.5	3	0.83	2	28%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.58	2	22%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	3	0.50	0	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.79	1	27%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	3	0.91	1	27%	1
OTT C. Giroux	2.0	2	0.78	0	26%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	2	0.64	0	31%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.0	2	0.51	1	21%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	3	0.55	0	9%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	0	0.47	1	9%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	0	0.42	0	18%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	2	0.48	0	8%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.7	1	0.57	1	17%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	2	0.57	1	20%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.6	0	0.23	0	12%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	2	0.89	2	26%	1
LAK T. Lewis	1.3	0	0.24	0	10%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	2	0.40	2	9%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.29	1	15%	1
LAK M. Anderson	1.2	1	0.32	0	7%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.2	1	0.36	0	15%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.2	0	0.18	0	5%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.31	0	17%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.1	0	0.31	1	5%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
OTT C. Reinhardt	0.9	3	0.29	0	11%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	1	0.22	0	8%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.13	1	3%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	1	0.07	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.