Game Recap: OTT 1, LAK 2, November 24, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT1

FinalMon, Nov 24, 2025Every game that night

LAK2

LAK beat OTT 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 3.26. J. Edmundson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Amadio had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Kuemper stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	0	1	1
LAK	0	0	2	2

3rd 5:31LAKW. Foegele0.13 xG
3rd 10:49OTTF. Zetterlund0.47 xG
3rd 13:50LAKB. ClarkePP0.04 xG

Team Stats

OTTLAK

28Shots on goal22

3.26Expected goals1.96

54Shot attempts47

245v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play1/3

22Hits14

14Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways10

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.26 xGLAK 1.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 1 scored

LAK22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:38	2:35
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	22:48	3:12
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:40	0:55
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:31	2:51
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:54	3:16
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	19:12	3:15
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	15:59	1:49
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:28	0:10
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:46	2:57
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:21	0:05
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:03	2:41
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	5:44	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	15:56	0:02
N. Matinpalo	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	15:02	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	25:56	3:32
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	18:43	0:11
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	18:28	0:01
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:18	2:28

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	22	20	2	.909	57:34	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Armia	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:51	0:06
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:08	0:06
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	8:00	1:58
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	22:25	3:43
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:13	3:53
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	18:54	3:52
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:59	3:43
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:23	2:19
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:18	2:17
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:06	1:35
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:41	3:46
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:25	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	2	2	1	2	2	0	0	20:34	0:10
B. Clarke	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	2	20:24	2:15
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	21:41	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	19:23	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	17:47	0:06
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:08	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	28	27	1	.964	59:40	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson14:40T. Stützle14:20D. Perron8:34

Line 2M. Amadio13:21S. Pinto14:43C. Giroux12:21

Line 3F. Zetterlund12:09D. Cozens13:29L. Eller12:57

Line 4S. Halliday5:21H. Hodgson5:24N. Cousins8:16

Pair 1J. Sanderson17:07A. Zub14:55

Pair 2N. Jensen15:29N. Matinpalo12:18

Pair 3T. Kleven15:26J. Spence15:25

LAK

Line 1K. Fiala15:37Q. Byfield15:55A. Kempe14:06

Line 2P. Danault11:52A. Laferriere11:49J. Armia12:13

Line 3A. Kopitar13:31T. Moore11:22A. Kuzmenko9:28

Line 4C. Perry5:42W. Foegele10:27S. Helenius3:25

Pair 1B. Dumoulin17:56B. Clarke17:30

Pair 2M. Anderson16:06J. Edmundson15:51

Pair 3C. Ceci12:23J. Moverare11:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnton Forsberg LAK Faces OTT, his team until May 20250 saves on 0
Old teamJordan Spence OTT Faces LAK, his team until May 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.6, LAK 3.1	OTT 1, LAK 2
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	OTT 24.8, LAK 28.1	OTT 28, LAK 22
Win chance	LAK 58%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.2	0	0.91	0	35%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	3	0.99	0	37%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.4	2	0.55	0	22%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.3	2	0.78	0	24%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	4	0.81	0	25%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.1	2	0.53	0	22%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	0	0.49	0	8%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	1	0.54	0	20%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	4	0.69	0	23%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	2	0.55	0	24%	0
LAK W. Foegele	1.9	1	0.43	1	20%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	3	0.48	1	9%	1
LAK C. Perry	1.8	0	0.55	1	25%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	2	0.35	1	15%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	0	0.60	0	20%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	1	0.55	0	18%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.4	0	0.46	0	19%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	2	0.60	0	24%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	0	0.80	0	24%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	4	0.38	0	18%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.1	0	0.33	1	14%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	0	0.15	0	3%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	3	0.33	0	4%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.24	2	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.12	1	2%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	3	0.23	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.24	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.17	1	3%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.6	2	0.15	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	0	0.14	0	7%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.