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Game Recap
OTT5
Final/OTThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night
LAK6

LAK beat OTT 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.65 expected goals to 2.93. LAK outshot OTT 38 to 22. D. Cozens led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Laferriere had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Kuemper stopped 17 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
OTT10405
LAK14016
  1. 1st 11:24OTTT. Kleven0.15 xG
  2. 1st 15:09LAKE. HaulaPP0.10 xG
  3. 2nd 6:51LAKT. Moore0.04 xG
  4. 2nd 10:17LAKM. Anderson0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 10:54LAKJ. Armia0.07 xG
  6. 2nd 15:43LAKA. PanarinPP0.17 xG
  7. 3rd 7:18OTTD. Cozens0.11 xG
  8. 3rd 7:51OTTD. Batherson0.09 xG
  9. 3rd 12:34OTTD. CozensPP0.35 xG
  10. 3rd 18:20OTTS. Pinto0.09 xG
  11. OT 3:37LAKQ. Byfield0.10 xG

Team Stats

OTTLAK
22Shots on goal38
2.93Expected goals5.65
46Shot attempts71
175v5 shots on goal16
1/4Power play2/7
37Hits27
19Blocked shots13
35Penalty minutes18
10Giveaways9
5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.93 xGLAK 5.65 xGGoal

01234561st2nd3rdOTOTT goal, 11:24LAK goal, 15:09LAK goal, 6:51LAK goal, 10:17LAK goal, 10:54LAK goal, 15:43OTT goal, 7:18OTT goal, 7:51OTT goal, 12:34OTT goal, 18:20LAK goal, 3:37

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT22 on goal, 5 scored
LAK38 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC033131+2022:212:35
D. BathersonRW1233100018:572:28
D. CozensC213240+1017:301:23
S. PintoC1012300021:590:52
F. ZetterlundLW0112100013:250:44
R. GreigC0000240019:220:48
M. AmadioRW000051-1018:190:00
C. GirouxRW0000200015:221:59
S. HallidayC000100+1011:171:19
N. CousinsC0002500148:300:00
A. BurakovskyLW000100004:540:00
H. HodgsonRW0001310154:440:00
J. SandersonD011125-1029:172:39
T. KlevenD101212-1014:420:00
N. MatinpaloD011100+1212:370:00
T. ChabotD0002130222:370:40
A. ZubD000120+1221:000:00
J. SpenceD0000220019:550:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Johansson16124.75030:54
S. Ersson22202.90932:31OT loss

LAK Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. PanarinLW1127010024:076:51
Q. ByfieldRW1125100020:336:10
T. MooreLW101300-1019:033:13
E. HaulaLW1014200213:413:24
J. ArmiaRW1013410013:280:00
A. LaferriereRW000751-1022:186:25
A. KempeRW000500+1422:016:36
C. PerryRW0001310017:594:58
S. LaughtonC0002300015:450:00
A. LeeLW000030009:500:01
T. WardRW000000005:350:00
S. HeleniusC0000210105:160:00
D. DoughtyD033001+2022:542:41
B. DumoulinD0110410021:011:43
M. AndersonD101105-1018:440:02
B. ClarkeD0110000011:371:25
E. GustafssonD000000-1224:425:36
J. EdmundsonD000001-1016:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Kuemper22175.77362:56Win
A. Forsberg000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1F. Zetterlund12:00T. Stützle12:57C. Giroux12:15
Line 2M. Amadio14:12R. Greig12:21S. Pinto12:44
Line 3D. Batherson14:10D. Cozens14:05A. Burakovsky4:54
Line 4H. Hodgson4:44S. Halliday9:46N. Cousins8:30
Pair 1T. Chabot17:43J. Spence18:38
Pair 2J. Sanderson18:05A. Zub14:59
Pair 3T. Kleven10:25N. Matinpalo8:47

LAK

Line 1A. Panarin13:48A. Laferriere13:44A. Kempe12:39
Line 2C. Perry12:20T. Moore13:08Q. Byfield11:56
Line 3J. Armia12:24S. Laughton13:10A. Lee9:28
Line 4E. Haula9:02T. Ward5:35S. Helenius5:16
Pair 1B. Dumoulin17:07M. Anderson16:52
Pair 2D. Doughty15:40J. Edmundson13:43
Pair 3E. Gustafsson15:52B. Clarke9:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 20 overs hit (55%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
LAK A. Kempe2.5-118-1105Over
LAK A. Laferriere2.5+110-1287Over
LAK A. Panarin2.5-118-1057Over
OTT D. Cozens2.5+100-1252Under
OTT J. Sanderson2.5+142-1601Under
LAK Q. Byfield2.5+125-1555Over
OTT T. Stützle2.5+130-1551Under
LAK B. Clarke1.5-110-1150Under
OTT C. Giroux1.5-105-1110Under
OTT D. Batherson1.5-182+1453Over
LAK E. Gustafsson1.5+160-1900Under
LAK E. Haula1.5+120-1304Over
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-130+1202Over
OTT R. Greig1.5+100-1300Under
OTT S. Halliday1.5+130-1901Under
LAK S. Laughton1.5+120-1402Over
OTT S. Pinto1.5-145+1302Over
OTT T. Chabot1.5-110-1202Over
LAK T. Moore1.5-150+1303Over
LAK T. Ward1.5+135-1650Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamAnton Forsberg LAK Faces OTT, his team until May 20250 saves on 0
  • Old teamJordan Spence OTT Faces LAK, his team until May 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.0, LAK 3.1OTT 5, LAK 6
Total goals6.111
Shots on goalOTT 26.9, LAK 26.1OTT 22, LAK 38
Win chanceLAK 53%LAK won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
LAK A. Kempe2.851.07039%0
LAK A. Panarin2.771.33240%1
LAK A. Laferriere2.670.79028%0
OTT D. Cozens2.320.61322%2
OTT T. Stützle2.311.00330%0
LAK T. Moore2.130.56123%1
OTT S. Pinto2.120.62125%1
OTT D. Batherson2.030.78327%1
LAK Q. Byfield2.050.66224%1
OTT J. Sanderson2.010.59111%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.920.41117%0
OTT C. Giroux1.700.62019%0
OTT T. Chabot1.720.48011%0
LAK B. Clarke1.700.51110%0
OTT R. Greig1.600.43016%0
LAK S. Laughton1.520.39017%0
LAK E. Haula1.540.46119%1
OTT S. Halliday1.410.39013%0
OTT J. Spence1.300.3507%0
LAK J. Armia1.330.37117%1
LAK D. Doughty1.200.44311%0
LAK E. Gustafsson1.100.4208%0
OTT T. Kleven1.120.2115%1
LAK J. Edmundson1.100.2405%0
OTT A. Burakovsky1.110.42014%0
OTT M. Amadio1.100.39016%0
LAK C. Perry1.110.36017%0
LAK T. Ward1.000.22010%0
OTT A. Zub0.910.2705%0
LAK A. Lee0.900.2609%0
LAK S. Helenius0.800.1809%0
OTT N. Cousins0.720.1907%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.710.1112%0
LAK M. Anderson0.710.2315%1
LAK B. Dumoulin0.600.2014%0
OTT H. Hodgson0.510.0904%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.