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Game Recap
OTT3
MIN1
OTT beat MIN 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 1.80. R. Hartman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Meriläinen stopped 30 of 31.
Team Stats
OTTMIN
37Shots on goal31
3.00Expected goals1.80
67Shot attempts56
305v5 shots on goal22
1/2Power play0/2
18Hits26
13Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes11
8Giveaways16
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.00 xGMIN 1.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:38 | 0:49 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:08 | 2:38 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:36 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:24 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 0:51 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:48 | 2:41 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:49 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:46 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:15 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:23 | 2:30 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 25:45 | 0:57 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 24:44 | 0:14 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Meriläinen | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 59:38 | Win |
| M. Sogaard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:26 | 2:27 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:52 | 2:27 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:09 | 2:27 |
| J. Eriksson Ek | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:27 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:27 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:00 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:36 | 0:43 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:11 | 1:44 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 58:33 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, MIN 3.4 | OTT 3, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 28.5, MIN 28.9 | OTT 37, MIN 31 |
| Win chance | MIN 59% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 6 | 0.80 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 2.9 | 4 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| MIN J. Ek | 2.9 | 4 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.1 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 5 | 0.51 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.5 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.3 | 3 | 0.17 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 0.8 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.7 | 3 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.4 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.