Game Recap: OTT 2, MIN 3, December 13, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT2

FinalSat, Dec 13, 2025Every game that night

MIN3

MIN beat OTT 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.07 expected goals to 3.98. OTT outshot MIN 36 to 25. D. Cozens led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Zetterlund had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Wallstedt stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	1	1	2
MIN	0	2	1	3

2nd 3:54MINT. Pitlick0.08 xG
2nd 16:02MINR. HartmanPP0.21 xG
2nd 19:37OTTT. StützlePP0.16 xG
3rd 5:45OTTD. CozensPP0.09 xG
3rd 19:36MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.01 xG

Team Stats

OTTMIN

36Shots on goal25

3.98Expected goals3.07

76Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal20

2/4Power play1/3

30Hits21

7Blocked shots19

13Penalty minutes15

16Giveaways15

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.98 xGMIN 3.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT36 on goal, 2 scored

MIN25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	3	4	0	0	2	23:15	3:44
D. Cozens	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	18:49	3:42
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:58	3:42
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	5	4	0	0	0	19:51	3:38
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:09	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	17:02	0:56
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	7	15:53	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	7	4	0	-1	0	15:28	0:52
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	14:28	1:01
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:59	0:55
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	5:20	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2:50	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	27:46	3:47
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	24:54	0:01
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	17:20	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:54	0:57
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:19	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	25	22	3	.880	58:59	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Johansson	LW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	17:44	2:53
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	4	20:10	3:07
D. Yurov	RW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	14:53	2:45
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	2	1	3	0	5	13:53	2:51
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:38	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	6:40	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	23:17	3:24
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	22:36	3:07
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:59	3:10
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	11:57	0:00
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:56	0:03
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	5:57	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+2	0	22:17	2:28
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	28:01	3:11
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	20:46	0:19
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	19:02	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	14:35	2:32
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	36	34	2	.944	60:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk14:57T. Stützle15:44F. Zetterlund13:37

Line 2C. Giroux12:45M. Amadio14:43R. Greig12:43

Line 3D. Batherson14:21D. Cozens12:53D. Perron13:01

Line 4S. Halliday5:04N. Cousins5:20K. MacDermid2:50

Pair 1J. Sanderson18:21A. Zub19:30

Pair 2N. Jensen12:50N. Matinpalo11:21

Pair 3J. Spence14:56T. Kleven15:09

MIN

Line 1V. Tarasenko13:49K. Kaprizov17:29D. Yurov12:08

Line 2M. Johansson14:20M. Boldy15:00J. Ek14:03

Line 3N. Aube-Kubel9:53Y. Trenin10:01R. Hartman9:55

Line 4T. Pitlick6:40B. Jones5:57N. Sturm8:20

Pair 1D. Hunt18:23B. Faber19:01

Pair 2Z. Bogosian16:51J. Spurgeon14:46

Pair 3M. Kiersted11:29D.Jiricek12:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.7, MIN 2.9	OTT 2, MIN 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	OTT 27.7, MIN 26.9	OTT 36, MIN 25
Win chance	MIN 53%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	5	0.70	1	29%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	2	1.31	0	47%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	3	1.05	0	35%	0
MIN J. Ek	3.2	2	0.79	1	28%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.6	2	0.62	0	11%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.4	1	0.72	1	26%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.3	5	0.57	2	21%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	3	0.82	2	27%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	2	0.51	1	22%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	7	0.36	0	17%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	2	0.57	0	22%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	1	0.44	0	11%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.7	1	0.57	2	19%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	4	0.57	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	1	0.33	0	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	1	0.42	0	19%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	3	0.43	0	18%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.4	1	0.28	0	14%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.4	1	0.39	0	5%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	4	0.39	1	16%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.3	2	0.17	0	3%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.35	1	8%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.27	0	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.0	1	0.23	1	11%	0
OTT S. Halliday	0.9	0	0.15	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.14	0	2%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	0	0.05	0	5%	0
MIN N. Aube-Kubel	0.8	1	0.18	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.7	1	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.7	1	0.13	1	6%	1
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.12	0	2%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.05	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.