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Game Recap
OTT5
MTL2
OTT beat MTL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 1.79. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Batherson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 3:37MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.18 xG
- 1st 4:01OTTF. Zetterlund0.05 xG
- 1st 16:53OTTA. Zub0.20 xG
- 2nd 5:48OTTJ. Sanderson0.20 xG
- 2nd 6:58OTTD. Batherson0.42 xG
- 2nd 8:50MTLN. SuzukiPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:43OTTB. Tkachuk0.18 xG
Team Stats
OTTMTL
29Shots on goal22
4.24Expected goals1.79
63Shot attempts47
255v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play2/3
21Hits33
16Blocked shots16
10Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways14
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 4.24 xGMTL 1.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:53 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:10 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:55 | 2:53 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:45 | 2:15 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 1:56 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:54 | 1:56 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:44 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:55 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:56 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:49 | 0:10 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:01 | 1:29 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:56 | 2:17 |
| A. Zub | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:02 | 0:02 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:14 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 59:21 | Win |
| L. Meriläinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 3:42 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:41 | 3:42 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:34 | 3:42 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:15 | 2:00 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:25 | 1:42 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| F. Xhekaj | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 26:03 | 3:42 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 59:56 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 2D. Batherson15:19D. Cozens13:10D. Perron10:55
Line 3B. Tkachuk11:45T. Stützle11:38F. Zetterlund13:50
Line 4L. Eller8:27R. Greig11:11K. MacDermid2:58
Pair 2A. Zub18:41J. Sanderson16:56
Pair 3N. Jensen12:52N. Matinpalo11:06
MTL
Line 1J. Slafkovský16:58I. Demidov14:05O. Kapanen13:46
Line 2N. Suzuki13:35C. Caufield13:13Z. Bolduc10:22
Line 3B. Gallagher12:57J. Veleno12:33A. Texier11:55
Line 4J. Anderson7:48J. Evans7:18F. Xhekaj7:43
Pair 1M. Matheson17:14N. Dobson14:49
Pair 2L. Hutson19:28J. Struble15:57
Pair 3A. Xhekaj12:48A. Carrier15:26
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.9, MTL 3.0 | OTT 5, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 26.1, MTL 25.1 | OTT 29, MTL 22 |
| Win chance | MTL 51% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 3 | 0.78 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 1 | 0.87 | 2 | 35% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.2 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 5 | 0.80 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 3 | 1.01 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 1.8 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.3 | 4 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT K. MacDermid | 0.3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.