Game Recap: OTT 5, NSH 2, February 3, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT5

FinalMon, Feb 3, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

OTT beat NSH 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.31 expected goals to 1.83. OTT outshot NSH 39 to 27. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Pinto had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Forsberg stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	2	3	5
NSH	0	1	1	2

2nd 3:59NSHF. Forsberg0.21 xG
2nd 10:00OTTA. Gaudette0.37 xG
2nd 13:04OTTJ. Sanderson0.03 xG
3rd 0:47NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.19 xG
3rd 6:17OTTS. Pinto0.15 xG
3rd 14:06OTTD. PerronPP0.07 xG
3rd 17:09OTTR. GreigEN0.54 xG

Team Stats

OTTNSH

39Shots on goal27

4.31Expected goals1.83

65Shot attempts47

315v5 shots on goal22

1/5Power play1/2

20Hits31

11Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes12

18Giveaways12

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.31 xGNSH 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT39 on goal, 5 scored

NSH27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	20:50	6:08
D. Perron	LW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	14:44	2:47
A. Gaudette	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+2	0	11:13	2:31
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	21:30	5:43
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:28	5:13
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	7	1	0	+1	0	17:55	1:38
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	17:06	2:14
M. Highmore	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:49	0:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	19:23	5:20
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:08	0:22
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	7:56	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:26	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	22:10	0:32
J. Sanderson	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	0	24:50	5:26
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+2	0	22:24	2:41
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+2	2	17:34	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:18	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	12:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	4	3	0	-2	2	19:22	1:54
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	17:15	0:30
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	3	1	2	-1	0	16:11	1:54
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	12:07	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:41	0:04
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	16:02	0:04
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:15	1:27
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	14:20	1:51
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:37	0:04
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:35	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:05	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	6	9:28	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	2	22:59	1:58
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	22:36	0:04
K. Gravel	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:20	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	19:17	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:14	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	38	34	4	.895	58:56	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.7, NSH 2.9	OTT 5, NSH 2
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	OTT 28.7, NSH 30.0	OTT 39, NSH 27
Win chance	NSH 54%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	3	0.78	2	30%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	4	0.98	2	37%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	3.1	3	0.79	1	33%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.8	2	0.86	1	19%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	3	0.84	0	34%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	3	0.74	0	24%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	7	0.54	1	21%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	3	0.52	1	12%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	3	0.86	1	25%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	3	0.53	1	9%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.67	1	26%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	1	0.46	0	11%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	1	0.69	1	22%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.7	3	0.47	2	18%	1
NSH F. Svechkov	1.6	0	0.41	0	19%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	1	0.50	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	2	0.40	1	18%	1
NSH G. Nyquist	1.6	1	0.66	0	21%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.5	0	0.20	0	6%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.4	0	0.33	0	12%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	4	0.28	0	8%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	0	0.33	0	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.3	1	0.28	2	7%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.34	0	16%	0
NSH V. Hinostroza	1.3	1	0.27	1	12%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	1	0.24	0	13%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.2	3	0.06	0	3%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	5	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.1	1	0.24	1	9%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	0	0.14	0	3%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.1	3	0.25	2	13%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.12	0	4%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
NSH K. Gravel	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
OTT C. Reinhardt	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	1	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.