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Game Recap
OTT8
FinalWed, Jan 14, 2026Every game that night
NYR4

OTT beat NYR 8-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.39 expected goals to 1.53. OTT outshot NYR 30 to 22. B. Tkachuk led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. Zub had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. L. Meriläinen stopped 18 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT4228
NYR0134
  1. 1st 2:18OTTD. BathersonPP0.67 xG
  2. 1st 4:53OTTN. Jensen0.01 xG
  3. 1st 15:01OTTB. Tkachuk0.15 xG
  4. 1st 19:54OTTD. Cozens0.18 xG
  5. 2nd 5:57OTTJ. Sanderson0.07 xG
  6. 2nd 12:23OTTT. Chabot0.04 xG
  7. 2nd 18:55NYRG. Perreault0.13 xG
  8. 3rd 5:26NYRG. Perreault0.46 xG
  9. 3rd 8:20OTTD. Perron0.08 xG
  10. 3rd 10:44NYRN. LabaPP0.10 xG
  11. 3rd 15:58NYRA. Lafrenière0.07 xG
  12. 3rd 19:11OTTT. StützleEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

OTTNYR
30Shots on goal22
4.39Expected goals1.53
61Shot attempts45
235v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play1/1
13Hits38
16Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes6
11Giveaways24
3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.39 xGNYR 1.53 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTT goal, 2:18OTT goal, 4:53OTT goal, 15:01OTT goal, 19:54OTT goal, 5:57OTT goal, 12:23NYR goal, 18:55NYR goal, 5:26OTT goal, 8:20NYR goal, 10:44NYR goal, 15:58OTT goal, 19:11

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 8 scored
NYR20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. TkachukLW134620+3013:172:44
R. GreigC033011+2016:350:46
D. CozensC123410+2013:302:22
D. PerronLW112100+3213:281:58
N. CousinsC022101+3012:130:00
T. StützleC1013100017:432:56
D. BathersonRW101111-1017:312:57
S. PintoC000200-1017:320:00
C. GirouxRW0001100016:211:59
M. AmadioRW000000-1016:010:00
L. EllerC000001+3013:370:00
F. ZetterlundLW000151-1012:290:45
J. SandersonD1121050021:092:44
N. JensenD112202+2020:371:06
T. ChabotD101210+2023:122:01
A. ZubD011401+1017:100:00
J. SpenceD000002+1019:441:27
T. KlevenD000101+2016:020:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen22184.81860:00Win
J. Reimer000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC022511+1020:141:24
J. MillerC0221200018:581:24
G. PerreaultRW202210+2016:320:25
A. LafrenièreLW1122120015:110:25
A. PanarinLW011201-2019:551:24
N. LabaC101121-2213:230:25
V. TrocheckC000030-3417:531:24
W. CuylleLW000170-3013:070:25
B. OthmannLW000151-2011:590:00
J. BrodzinskiC000121-2010:540:00
S. CarrickC000120-2010:310:00
T. RaddyshRW000000-1010:120:00
C. SoucyD0111360016:560:00
S. MorrowD011100-2016:390:25
V. GavrikovD000200-3023:521:24
B. SchneiderD000121-1022:180:00
M. RobertsonD000031-1019:010:00
W. BorgenD0000450018:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Quick17116.64732:23Loss
S. Martin12111.91726:52

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio15:28S. Pinto15:54C. Giroux13:30
Line 2D. Batherson14:34T. Stützle13:51F. Zetterlund11:44
Line 3L. Eller13:37N. Cousins12:13D. Perron11:30
Line 4R. Greig14:12D. Cozens11:08B. Tkachuk10:16
Pair 1N. Jensen19:31T. Chabot20:46
Pair 2J. Spence18:17T. Kleven15:37
Pair 3J. Sanderson16:16A. Zub15:01

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin17:46A. Lafrenière14:46V. Trocheck15:04
Line 2J. Miller14:36M. Zibanejad15:11G. Perreault15:22
Line 3B. Othmann11:59N. Laba12:15W. Cuylle11:20
Line 4S. Carrick10:05J. Brodzinski10:54T. Raddysh9:01
Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:01B. Schneider19:41
Pair 2W. Borgen16:21M. Robertson18:16
Pair 3C. Soucy15:33S. Morrow16:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 2.9, NYR 3.1OTT 8, NYR 4
Total goals5.912
Shots on goalOTT 27.8, NYR 25.0OTT 30, NYR 22
Win chanceNYR 54%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.660.71428%1
NYR A. Panarin3.121.32137%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.551.01231%0
OTT T. Stützle2.330.88126%1
NYR V. Trocheck2.300.95030%0
NYR J. Miller2.211.06232%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.210.58210%1
OTT D. Cozens2.140.54319%1
OTT D. Batherson2.110.72124%1
OTT S. Pinto1.920.56023%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.910.53022%0
NYR A. Lafrenière1.820.61223%1
OTT T. Chabot1.820.4519%1
OTT F. Zetterlund1.710.35015%0
OTT C. Giroux1.610.61019%0
OTT R. Greig1.600.34313%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.520.45011%0
OTT D. Perron1.410.43217%1
NYR B. Schneider1.310.2807%0
OTT M. Amadio1.200.36016%0
NYR J. Brodzinski1.210.31014%0
OTT J. Spence1.200.3004%0
NYR S. Morrow1.210.3015%0
NYR T. Raddysh1.200.33014%0
NYR M. Robertson1.100.2606%0
NYR N. Laba1.110.29113%1
NYR W. Borgen1.000.2206%0
OTT T. Kleven1.010.1403%0
NYR G. Perreault1.020.30212%2
OTT A. Zub1.040.2215%0
NYR B. Othmann0.910.1206%0
NYR S. Carrick0.910.2008%0
OTT N. Cousins0.910.2129%0
OTT L. Eller0.800.1908%0
NYR C. Soucy0.810.1816%0
OTT N. Jensen0.720.1923%1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.