Game Recap: OTT 3, SEA 0, December 17, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

OTT3

FinalTue, Dec 17, 2024Every game that night

SEA0

OTT beat SEA 3-0, with the chances close: 2.41 expected goals to 2.15. J. Schwartz had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Ullmark stopped 30 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	2	1	3
SEA	0	0	0	0

2nd 8:02OTTS. Pinto0.04 xG
2nd 12:45OTTN. Gregor0.08 xG
3rd 4:18OTTT. Stützle0.16 xG

Team Stats

OTTSEA

27Shots on goal30

2.41Expected goals2.15

68Shot attempts66

255v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/4

18Hits31

16Blocked shots20

10Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways15

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.41 xGSEA 2.15 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT27 on goal, 3 scored

SEA29 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:08	0:59
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	2	15:55	4:04
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:49	1:48
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	13:38	1:44
A. Gaudette	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	11:11	1:11
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:31	0:15
N. Gregor	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	9:23	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	8:50	0:02
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	20:49	2:38
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:45	3:59
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	5	4	1	0	2	19:35	4:03
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	11:30	0:15
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	25:03	3:31
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	22:50	2:29
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	22:49	1:43
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:51	0:03
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	2	12:13	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+2	0	12:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	30	30	0	1.000	60:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	1	3	0	2	24:52	5:13
J. McCann	LW	5	1	3	0	0	23:51	5:16
J. Schwartz	LW	5	0	0	0	0	19:11	4:46
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	1	1	0	0	18:24	2:48
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	0	0	17:50	3:15
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	3	4	0	0	0	16:05	5:15
B. Tanev	LW	1	4	2	0	0	14:50	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	2	7	2	0	0	14:04	2:45
S. Wright	C	0	1	0	-1	2	13:02	2:42
M. Stephens	C	0	1	0	-2	0	8:13	0:00
R. Winterton	C	2	3	1	-3	0	6:53	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	1	1	0	-3	0	6:03	0:00
B. Montour	D	5	0	2	-1	0	25:00	4:35
V. Dunn	D	3	1	0	-3	0	22:28	5:25
R. Evans	D	1	1	0	0	2	17:47	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	2	0	0	17:04	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	3	2	-2	0	16:22	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	0	2	15:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	27	24	3	.889	54:27	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAndre Burakovsky OTT Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, SEA 3.1	OTT 3, SEA 0
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	OTT 29.4, SEA 27.6	OTT 27, SEA 30
Win chance	SEA 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	5	0.86	0	31%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	5	0.84	0	33%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.3	5	0.62	0	16%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	2	0.81	0	26%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	3	0.49	0	11%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	5	0.59	0	24%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	3	0.69	0	25%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	3	0.63	0	30%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	1	0.87	1	25%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	2	0.43	1	18%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	3	0.42	0	7%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	3	0.73	0	14%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	0	0.60	0	22%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.54	0	19%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	0	0.63	1	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	2	0.48	0	20%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	1	0.29	0	11%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.5	1	0.41	0	18%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.4	1	0.37	1	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.38	1	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	0	0.26	0	7%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	2	0.17	0	5%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.2	3	0.20	1	10%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.75	0	21%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.2	0	0.29	0	5%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	0	0.54	0	23%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.1	1	0.28	1	12%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	2	0.17	0	9%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.0	1	0.39	0	6%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	1	0.23	0	12%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	0	0.11	0	3%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	0	0.20	0	7%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.13	0	4%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.13	1	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.