Game Recap: OTT 7, SEA 4, March 7, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT7

FinalSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night

SEA4

OTT beat SEA 7-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 2.03. OTT outshot SEA 37 to 21. S. Pinto led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). L. Eller had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. L. Ullmark stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	2	2	3	7
SEA	1	1	2	4

1st 8:45SEAJ. Melanson0.29 xG
1st 9:19OTTT. Kleven0.14 xG
1st 13:35OTTD. Cozens0.07 xG
2nd 1:34OTTS. Pinto0.16 xG
2nd 10:09OTTM. Amadio0.17 xG
2nd 15:00SEAE. Tolvanen0.11 xG
3rd 2:42OTTW. Foegele0.21 xG
3rd 3:58OTTT. Stützle0.14 xG
3rd 7:24OTTB. Tkachuk0.10 xG
3rd 10:16SEAM. Beniers0.03 xG
3rd 17:45SEAB. MontourPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

OTTSEA

37Shots on goal21

4.04Expected goals2.03

72Shot attempts42

305v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/4

26Hits28

8Blocked shots18

23Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways15

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.04 xGSEA 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT37 on goal, 7 scored

SEA20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	1	2	3	3	2	1	+2	4	18:18	1:08
M. Amadio	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	14:40	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	13:40	0:00
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:51	1:19
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	2	5	0	+1	0	16:05	1:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+1	0	15:18	1:00
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	12:56	1:00
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	11:49	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	2	10:44	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	17:11	0:41
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:50	1:04
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+2	0	11:42	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	26:12	0:53
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:55	0:04
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	20:32	0:00
T. Kleven	D	1	0	1	1	3	0	+2	17	19:13	0:04
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:19	1:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	12:52	1:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	21	17	4	.810	59:41	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	2	2	4	1	2	-2	2	16:14	2:37
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	-2	0	17:46	2:39
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	17:13	2:47
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:02	0:03
B. Meyers	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:02	0:58
J. Melanson	RW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	11:10	0:05
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:09	2:31
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:02	2:53
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:06	2:56
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	15:10	2:31
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-3	2	14:49	0:51
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:27	0:00
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	3	2	2	-1	0	28:18	3:34
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	18:07	2:56
C. Fleury	D	0	1	1	0	6	3	0	0	15:30	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	23:08	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:29	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	15:18	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	37	30	7	.811	60:00	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio13:36S. Pinto15:06N. Cousins13:40

Line 2D. Cozens13:57R. Greig13:21B. Tkachuk13:20

Line 3D. Batherson11:12T. Stützle12:16C. Giroux11:00

Line 4W. Foegele11:49F. Zetterlund11:42L. Eller9:30

Pair 1N. Jensen16:55T. Chabot20:42

Pair 2A. Zub18:02J. Sanderson10:50

Pair 3T. Kleven18:00J. Spence16:02

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson14:55E. Tolvanen13:49J. Schwartz6:03

Line 2S. Wright12:39B. Catton15:09K. Kakko13:10

Line 3J. McCann12:40M. Beniers12:56J. Eberle13:37

Line 4J. Melanson11:05B. Meyers11:40R. Winterton12:39

Pair 1J. Oleksiak21:52B. Montour23:35

Pair 2R. Evans13:37C. Fleury14:28

Pair 3A. Larsson13:05V. Dunn14:01

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.2, SEA 2.8	OTT 7, SEA 4
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	OTT 29.2, SEA 23.1	OTT 37, SEA 21
Win chance	OTT 56%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	5	0.75	1	29%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	3	0.52	1	16%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.4	1	0.83	0	30%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	2	0.89	1	28%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	3	0.64	0	11%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	2	0.58	1	21%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	4	0.73	1	25%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	3	0.55	3	24%	1
OTT W. Foegele	2.1	2	0.40	1	20%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	2	0.53	2	10%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	4	0.67	2	24%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.62	1	23%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	1	0.59	1	13%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	0	0.52	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.49	1	21%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.6	3	0.40	0	15%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	0	0.54	0	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	2	0.44	2	20%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.48	0	20%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	1	0.31	2	13%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	2	0.28	1	8%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	2	0.35	0	6%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	1	0.28	1	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.44	0	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	0	0.32	0	8%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.28	1	5%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.18	1	3%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.67	0	20%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.0	0	0.11	1	4%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.9	3	0.23	0	11%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.8	4	0.18	1	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.24	1	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.6	1	0.24	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.