Game Recap: OTT 4, SJS 3, November 27, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT4

FinalWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

SJS3

OTT beat SJS 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.26 expected goals to 4.31. SJS outshot OTT 39 to 11. T. Stützle led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). F. Zetterlund had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	2	1	1	4
SJS	0	1	2	3

1st 4:35OTTA. Gaudette0.11 xG
1st 13:56OTTJ. NorrisPP0.19 xG
2nd 9:19SJSM. Ferraro0.13 xG
2nd 15:22OTTT. Kleven0.09 xG
3rd 4:48SJSM. Celebrini0.34 xG
3rd 12:32SJSW. SmithPP0.59 xG
3rd 15:48OTTA. Gaudette0.06 xG

Team Stats

OTTSJS

11Shots on goal39

1.26Expected goals4.31

30Shot attempts82

105v5 shots on goal33

1/2Power play1/2

30Hits29

24Blocked shots6

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways19

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 1.26 xGSJS 4.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT11 on goal, 4 scored

SJS39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	3	3	1	3	1	+2	0	19:36	2:15
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	16:04	2:03
A. Gaudette	RW	2	0	2	3	3	1	+2	0	12:30	0:39
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	19:59	0:49
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	1	4	3	0	0	18:43	2:05
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	17:57	1:53
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	15:51	0:27
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	2	14:07	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:53	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:32	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:15	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	7:44	0:00
T. Kleven	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	16:27	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	23:27	2:07
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	22:06	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:37	0:37
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	20:17	0:35
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	+1	0	15:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	39	36	3	.923	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	14:44	1:00
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	25:30	2:47
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	24:40	2:42
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	6	3	0	0	0	23:25	1:13
K. Kostin	C	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	2	10:46	0:32
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	20:44	2:48
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	-1	0	18:01	1:16
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:43	2:37
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:47	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	8:30	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	8:15	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2:08	0:28
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:58	0:55
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	20:29	2:57
M. Ferraro	D	1	0	1	1	3	1	+1	2	20:27	0:05
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:50	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:27	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	11	7	4	.636	57:54	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamWilliam Eklund OTT First game back in San Jose, his team until Apr 20261 A, 3 SOG
Old teamAdam Gaudette SJS Faces OTT, his team until May 20252 G, 3 SOG
Old teamFabian Zetterlund OTT Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20251 A, 6 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.6, SJS 2.8	OTT 4, SJS 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	OTT 34.4, SJS 26.4	OTT 11, SJS 39
Win chance	OTT 62%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.1	1	1.02	2	36%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	3	0.78	1	28%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	2	0.79	0	33%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.6	0	0.97	1	31%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	1	1.10	3	32%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.4	0	0.60	0	12%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.4	0	0.95	1	31%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.4	1	0.63	0	10%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.3	1	0.77	1	35%	1
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.2	6	0.60	1	24%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	1	0.53	0	21%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.1	3	0.48	1	15%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.9	0	0.29	0	14%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	3	0.72	1	21%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.5	1	0.21	0	6%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	0	0.44	0	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.39	0	20%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	3	0.31	2	16%	2
SJS W. Smith	1.3	4	0.38	2	15%	1
OTT N. Jensen	1.3	0	0.32	0	5%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	2	0.23	0	13%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	3	0.49	0	17%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	3	0.32	0	16%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.2	0	0.31	0	15%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	3	0.38	1	8%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	2	0.32	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.24	1	4%	1
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	2	0.24	0	10%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.13	1	2%	1
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	1	0.16	0	4%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	0	0.27	1	14%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	0	0.27	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.