Game Recap: OTT 5, SJS 1, October 31, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT5

FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night

SJS1

OTT beat SJS 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.83 expected goals to 2.28. OTT outshot SJS 35 to 23. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Stützle had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Ersson stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	3	1	5
SJS	1	0	0	1

1st 13:25OTTD. Cozens0.02 xG
1st 16:06SJSM. Misa0.53 xG
2nd 5:04OTTD. Batherson0.11 xG
2nd 10:54OTTT. Stützle0.14 xG
2nd 12:17OTTR. GreigSH0.32 xG
3rd 17:30OTTS. PintoEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

OTTSJS

35Shots on goal23

5.83Expected goals2.28

79Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/3

14Hits24

9Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes18

13Giveaways20

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 5.83 xGSJS 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT34 on goal, 5 scored

SJS23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	7	1	0	+2	0	20:14	2:54
D. Cozens	C	1	1	2	5	3	0	+2	0	17:16	2:54
S. Pinto	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	+3	0	17:04	0:03
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:42	1:05
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	16:11	2:54
P. Tomasino	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	12:10	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	2	17:43	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:55	2:54
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	13:27	1:03
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:05	0:01
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	8:42	0:54
X. Bourgault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:25	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+4	0	22:50	2:25
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	19:02	1:47
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+3	2	18:52	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	19:38	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:53	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:16	1:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	23	22	1	.957	59:35	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Misa	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	14:40	2:39
K. Sherwood	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	-1	10	11:57	0:49
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:43	3:04
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	17:10	3:02
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	8	1	0	0	15:59	0:14
I. Stenberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	15:35	3:05
F. Bystedt	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:14	2:37
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:53	2:43
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	14:38	3:08
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:37	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	4	13:32	0:14
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:07	0:16
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	4	1	3	0	2	22:41	2:12
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	-1	0	21:27	1:55
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	21:10	0:14
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:28	0:29
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	16:22	3:19
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	34	30	4	.882	57:31	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio13:49R. Greig12:21C. Giroux12:00

Line 2F. Zetterlund12:13D. Cozens13:30T. Stützle12:14

Line 3S. Pinto11:47P. Tomasino12:10D. Batherson11:19

Line 4N. Cousins8:34S. Halliday7:43X. Bourgault7:25

Pair 1T. Kleven15:49N. Matinpalo15:45

Pair 2T. Chabot15:44J. Spence15:25

Pair 3J. Sanderson14:17A. Zub13:25

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini13:21W. Smith11:42C. Graf11:19

Line 2B. Goodrow11:55T. Dellandrea13:50Z. Ostapchuk10:57

Line 3T. Toffoli11:15F. Bystedt11:57I. Stenberg10:38

Line 4M. Marchment9:42M. Misa10:41K. Sherwood8:08

Pair 1D. Nurse17:19M. Kesselring16:20

Pair 2J. Trouba16:10S. Dickinson15:39

Pair 3D. Orlov12:12N. Allan12:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 20 overs hit (55%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	+115	-130	2	Under
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	+130	-155	4	Over
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	+105	-115	5	Over
OTT J. Sanderson	2.5	+110	-135	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	2.5	+145	-178	1	Under
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	+120	-125	7	Over
SJS W. Smith	2.5	+120	-140	3	Over
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	-105	-105	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	1.5	+120	-145	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	1.5	-105	-125	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	-125	+115	4	Over
OTT J. Spence	1.5	+115	–	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	+105	-120	4	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-120	+105	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	+125	-185	3	Over
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-130	+105	2	Over
OTT R. Greig	1.5	-110	+100	3	Over
OTT S. Halliday	1.5	+120	-130	3	Over
OTT T. Chabot	1.5	-120	+120	2	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-125	+115	1	Under

6 of 33 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+360	-600	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+190	-220	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+260	-350	1	Over
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
SJS F. Bystedt	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+310	-475	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+525	-650	0	Under
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+410	-475	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+470	-700	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+430	-650	1	Over
SJS N. Allan	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+350	-500	1	Over
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+425	-475	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+275	-390	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+175	-195	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under

7 of 20 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+176	-220	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+150	-175	1	Over
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+168	-215	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+110	-140	2	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+215	-290	1	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+265	-300	1	Over
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-140	+115	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+260	-325	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+320	-330	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+230	-265	1	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+205	-210	1	Over
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+245	-325	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+154	-160	0	Under

10 of 21 overs hit (48%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+154	-160	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	1.5	+158	-190	2	Over
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+160	-175	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-175	+145	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-120	+110	2	Over
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+135	-170	0	Under
SJS F. Bystedt	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+140	-155	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	-120	-105	2	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+100	-110	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+150	-160	1	Over
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+106	-115	2	Over
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+145	-180	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-140	+120	0	Under

0 of 17 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+340	-750	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+210	-280	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+310	-375	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+280	-375	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+270	-280	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+145	-200	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+350	-525	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+400	-550	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
OTT T. Chabot	0.5	+425	-700	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+195	-215	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+425	-650	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+250	-325	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS A. Nedeljkovic	25.5	-105	-125	30	Over
OTT S. Ersson	21.5	-122	-106	22	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamFabian Zetterlund OTT Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.4, SJS 3.4	OTT 5, SJS 1
Total goals	6.8	6
Shots on goal	OTT 28.4, SJS 25.9	OTT 35, SJS 23
Win chance	OTT 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.6	2	1.39	0	41%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	5	0.69	2	26%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	7	1.13	2	34%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.4	3	0.92	0	31%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	1	0.70	2	29%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	4	0.90	1	31%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.2	0	0.74	2	15%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.1	4	0.47	0	19%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.0	0	0.54	1	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	2	0.56	1	13%	0
SJS M. Marchment	1.8	2	0.73	0	27%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	1.8	1	0.53	0	23%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	0	0.66	0	22%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	3	0.49	1	19%	1
SJS D. Nurse	1.7	0	0.32	0	9%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.6	4	0.40	1	9%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.6	4	0.33	0	7%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.6	0	0.58	0	24%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.5	3	0.43	0	15%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	0	0.39	0	8%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.2	1	0.53	0	19%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	2	0.48	1	17%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	3	0.45	0	20%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	1	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.1	1	0.45	0	9%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.27	0	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.32	1	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.22	0	8%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	0	0.21	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	0	0.13	0	8%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
SJS N. Allan	0.5	1	0.23	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.