Game Recap: OTT 0, STL 4, January 3, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT0

FinalFri, Jan 3, 2025Every game that night

STL4

STL beat OTT 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 1.42. B. Saad scored three for STL. B. Saad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Binnington stopped 20 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	0	0	0
STL	2	1	1	4

1st 7:26STLB. Schenn0.20 xG
1st 15:50STLB. Saad0.14 xG
2nd 14:15STLB. Saad0.19 xG
3rd 18:07STLB. Saad0.19 xG

Team Stats

OTTSTL

20Shots on goal25

1.42Expected goals2.98

48Shot attempts60

185v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/1

27Hits16

16Blocked shots13

7Penalty minutes7

12Giveaways16

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 1.42 xGSTL 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT20 on goal, 0 scored

STL25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	3	3	1	-2	2	19:12	2:00
C. Giroux	RW	2	1	0	-1	0	18:04	0:37
J. Norris	C	1	3	0	-2	0	18:01	1:25
T. Stützle	C	0	1	0	-1	0	17:41	1:25
S. Pinto	C	3	0	0	-2	0	16:35	0:35
R. Greig	C	2	3	1	-2	0	15:45	0:35
D. Batherson	RW	3	2	0	-1	0	15:24	1:23
N. Cousins	C	0	2	1	0	0	12:40	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	1	2	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	1	0	0	12:13	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	2	3	0	-1	5	11:31	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	10:28	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	1	2	-3	0	23:16	0:37
J. Sanderson	D	1	0	2	-2	0	22:54	1:23
A. Zub	D	0	1	3	-1	0	19:41	0:00
N. Jensen	D	1	0	1	-2	0	18:06	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	2	3	0	0	17:27	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	3	1	0	0	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Saad	LW	3	0	3	6	0	0	+3	0	17:03	1:14
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:12	1:14
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	16:55	0:46
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	16:53	1:14
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	2	16:27	0:46
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	15:42	0:46
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:46	0:46
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	13:33	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:25	1:14
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:17	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	13:06	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	12:41	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+3	0	22:27	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	24:08	0:59
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	21:28	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	20:44	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:10	1:01
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	20	20	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, STL 3.3	OTT 0, STL 4
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	OTT 28.3, STL 27.8	OTT 20, STL 25
Win chance	STL 58%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	3	0.84	0	31%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	1	0.88	0	34%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	2	0.58	1	25%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	1	0.48	0	11%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	1	0.87	1	31%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	3	0.75	0	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	0	0.87	0	26%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	3	0.46	0	20%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	1	0.59	0	30%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	3	1.06	1	27%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	2	0.63	1	22%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	2	0.65	0	23%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	1	0.41	0	7%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.7	0	0.49	0	25%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	1	0.44	1	10%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	2	0.39	0	17%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	0	0.29	0	12%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.40	0	17%	0
STL B. Saad	1.4	6	0.45	3	21%	3
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.17	0	5%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.3	0	0.20	0	10%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	0	0.30	0	15%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.53	0	10%	0
STL A. Texier	1.2	2	0.37	0	16%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	0	0.32	0	11%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.24	0	12%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.0	3	0.38	0	8%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
OTT C. Reinhardt	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	0	0.08	0	2%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	1	0.23	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.6	0	0.11	0	4%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.5	0	0.29	0	3%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.4	1	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.