Game Recap: OTT 3, STL 4, November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

STL4

STL beat OTT 4-3, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 3.03. D. Holloway had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Binnington stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	2	1	3
STL	0	1	3	4

2nd 7:59STLO. Sundqvist0.17 xG
2nd 10:11OTTS. Pinto0.31 xG
2nd 18:26OTTF. Zetterlund0.11 xG
3rd 2:01STLJ. Kyrou0.13 xG
3rd 5:33STLP. Buchnevich0.13 xG
3rd 7:31OTTD. Perron0.12 xG
3rd 9:19STLM. Kessel0.09 xG

Team Stats

OTTSTL

28Shots on goal31

3.03Expected goals3.10

58Shot attempts60

215v5 shots on goal26

0/1Power play0/3

20Hits17

17Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways20

7Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.03 xGSTL 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 3 scored

STL31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	+2	0	20:50	1:42
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	8	3	0	0	0	17:12	1:44
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	13:34	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:32	0:16
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	10:40	0:16
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	4	21:24	1:49
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	2	18:41	1:44
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	2	16:37	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:30	0:18
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:53	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:17	0:00
H. Hodgson	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	8:00	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	1	0	5	-1	0	27:18	1:30
N. Matinpalo	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:28	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	19:58	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:34	0:11
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:17	0:30
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	31	27	4	.871	57:13	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:21	3:11
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:09	2:57
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:08	3:02
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:37	3:00
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	0	15:11	2:35
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	7	2	0	+1	0	14:14	2:39
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:01	0:24
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	2	12:57	0:12
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	12:55	0:08
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	16:01	2:43
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	13:09	2:38
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	+1	0	24:53	0:32
M. Kessel	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	11:58	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	2	20:53	3:20
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	20:36	0:10
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:33	2:29
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	16:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	28	25	3	.893	59:33	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson13:31T. Stützle14:18D. Perron10:24

Line 2F. Zetterlund13:09D. Cozens13:11B. Tkachuk12:09

Line 3M. Amadio11:45S. Pinto12:03C. Giroux12:37

Line 4L. Eller8:55H. Hodgson8:00N. Cousins10:17

Pair 1J. Sanderson18:32A. Zub16:19

Pair 2J. Spence14:11T. Kleven14:56

Pair 3N. Jensen15:14N. Matinpalo14:34

STL

Line 1R. Thomas13:36J. Neighbours12:27J. Kyrou11:36

Line 2P. Suter12:09J. Snuggerud12:26D. Holloway10:49

Line 3N. Walker10:43M. Joseph11:13O. Sundqvist11:07

Line 4B. Schenn11:48D. Dvorsky10:31P. Buchnevich11:58

Pair 1P. Broberg19:26C. Parayko16:52

Pair 2C. Fowler15:48L. Mailloux15:35

Pair 3J. Faulk14:37M. Kessel11:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, STL 3.0	OTT 3, STL 4
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	OTT 25.5, STL 25.2	OTT 28, STL 31
Win chance	STL 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.4	8	0.72	1	29%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	1	0.76	1	32%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	0	0.90	0	28%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	3	0.77	0	26%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	1	0.59	0	22%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	1	0.60	1	10%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	4	0.61	1	26%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.0	7	0.64	1	24%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	2	0.74	1	26%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	0	0.68	0	22%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	2	0.38	1	17%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	0	0.46	0	18%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	0	0.95	1	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.45	0	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	3	0.59	1	22%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	0	0.46	1	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	2	0.40	0	10%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	1	0.40	1	9%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	1	0.43	1	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	1	0.56	1	25%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.3	1	0.46	1	19%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.3	4	0.53	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	1	0.18	0	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.2	1	0.39	0	5%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	4	0.30	0	17%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.32	1	11%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.30	1	14%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.28	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.15	1	3%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
STL L. Mailloux	0.8	1	0.24	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	2	0.30	1	10%	1
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0
OTT H. Hodgson	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	1	0.12	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.