Game Recap: OTT 5, TBL 4, October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT5

FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

TBL4

OTT beat TBL 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.67 expected goals to 2.37. OTT outshot TBL 34 to 25. S. Pinto led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Zub had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. L. Ullmark stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	2	2	5
TBL	3	0	1	4

1st 5:35TBLO. BjorkstrandPP0.27 xG
1st 7:00TBLB. Point0.09 xG
1st 10:18OTTD. CozensPP0.08 xG
1st 14:46TBLN. KucherovPP0.20 xG
2nd 0:42OTTA. Zub0.01 xG
2nd 15:09OTTS. Pinto0.18 xG
3rd 18:13OTTS. Pinto0.06 xG
3rd 19:12OTTC. GirouxEN0.55 xG
3rd 19:46TBLN. Kucherov0.02 xG

Team Stats

OTTTBL

34Shots on goal25

3.67Expected goals2.37

65Shot attempts48

275v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play2/3

37Hits40

10Blocked shots18

20Penalty minutes22

12Giveaways16

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.67 xGTBL 2.37 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT32 on goal, 5 scored

TBL24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	3	3	5	3	0	+1	2	19:24	5:22
S. Pinto	C	2	1	3	2	0	0	+2	0	19:21	4:29
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	19:03	5:20
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	2	15:35	4:25
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	15:11	2:40
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:54	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	18:09	1:46
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	7	1	+1	0	16:34	2:25
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	14:20	0:01
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	12:37	1:46
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:46	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	2:13	0:00
A. Zub	D	1	2	3	5	2	0	+4	2	20:44	0:03
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	3	2	3	+3	0	23:10	4:38
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	2	22:00	2:30
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	19:35	0:15
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	5	14:18	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	21	4	.840	59:53	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Point	C	1	2	3	1	0	1	-2	0	19:40	4:08
J. Guentzel	C	0	2	2	2	0	2	-2	0	22:32	4:03
N. Kucherov	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	-2	0	20:55	4:01
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	14:39	3:43
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:08	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	4	15:40	0:30
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	14:56	0:35
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	1	10	0	0	4	13:24	0:55
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:56	0:37
P. Holmberg	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	11:52	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:39	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	5:09	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	1	1	3	-1	0	23:49	4:06
D. Raddysh	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	-1	0	17:33	0:32
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	19:02	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:45	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	-1	0	18:25	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	17:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	33	29	4	.879	58:56	Loss
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk13:57T. Stützle13:29F. Zetterlund14:02

Line 2S. Pinto11:33R. Greig13:06C. Giroux11:32

Line 3L. Eller12:01N. Cousins10:46M. Amadio16:31

Line 4D. Perron10:44D. Cozens11:03

Pair 1N. Jensen17:02T. Chabot18:07

Pair 2A. Zub18:08J. Sanderson14:55

Pair 3D. Sebrango14:17N. Matinpalo11:49

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov15:50B. Point14:28J. Guentzel14:08

Line 2Y. Gourde13:42O. Bjorkstrand10:49M. Chaffee12:29

Line 3B. Hagel11:41G. Goncalves11:19A. Cirelli9:33

Line 4P. Holmberg11:12C. Geekie10:32C. Douglas5:09

Pair 1M. Crozier17:45E. Lilleberg16:38

Pair 2D. Raddysh15:22V. Hedman15:33

Pair 3R. McDonagh14:43E. Cernak14:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, TBL 3.4	OTT 5, TBL 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	OTT 26.5, TBL 28.1	OTT 34, TBL 25
Win chance	TBL 61%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	5	0.69	3	29%	0
TBL N. Kucherov	3.3	4	1.52	2	36%	2
TBL J. Guentzel	3.1	2	1.05	2	40%	0
TBL B. Point	2.7	1	1.04	3	41%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	3	0.51	2	11%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.3	3	0.87	0	28%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	2	0.55	1	20%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	3	0.49	0	12%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.2	1	0.77	2	14%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	3	0.79	1	24%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	2	0.61	1	23%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	2	0.49	3	22%	2
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.63	0	23%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.35	0	15%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.6	2	0.45	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	4	0.40	0	16%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	2	0.53	1	19%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.49	0	15%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.4	0	0.53	0	19%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.39	0	19%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	3	0.13	0	3%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	0	0.28	0	14%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.2	2	0.35	2	6%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	0	0.29	0	12%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	1	0.20	0	8%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	5	0.23	3	6%	1
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.0	1	0.19	0	9%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.0	1	0.24	0	14%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	1	0.33	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	1	0.10	0	3%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.5	0	0.17	0	2%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.4	0	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.