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Game Recap
OTT2
FinalMon, Mar 9, 2026Every game that night
VAN0

OTT beat VAN 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.11 expected goals to 1.51. OTT outshot VAN 24 to 16. J. Reimer stopped 16 of 16.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT0112
VAN0000
  1. 2nd 10:11OTTR. Greig0.26 xG
  2. 3rd 18:40OTTB. TkachukEN0.68 xG

Team Stats

OTTVAN
24Shots on goal16
4.11Expected goals1.51
49Shot attempts38
175v5 shots on goal13
0/4Power play0/3
22Hits28
9Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes6
10Giveaways12
2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 4.11 xGVAN 1.51 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdOTT goal, 10:11OTT goal, 18:40

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT24 on goal, 2 scored
VAN16 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC011220+1019:464:32
S. PintoC011211+1019:013:05
R. GreigC101210+1018:450:55
B. TkachukLW101410+1015:164:21
M. AmadioRW0002010018:280:00
D. BathersonRW0001200015:504:01
D. CozensC0004400015:394:09
C. GirouxRW000010+2015:012:53
N. CousinsC0002300012:540:00
W. FoegeleLW0000200212:111:46
F. ZetterlundLW0001000010:002:11
L. EllerC000000007:530:00
T. ChabotD011001+2424:294:45
A. ZubD011000+2021:070:18
T. KlevenD0001330018:510:00
N. JensenD0001120017:450:01
J. SpenceD0001110017:122:18
N. MatinpaloD0001000013:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Reimer161601.00060:00Win
L. Ullmark000–0:00

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. BoeserRW000110-1019:443:27
T. BluegerC0001210018:440:00
D. O'ConnorLW000120-1016:541:39
L. OhgrenLW000200-1016:540:00
M. RossiC000111-1016:103:26
J. DeBruskLW0000110015:373:05
E. PetterssonC0001210215:262:58
N. HoglanderLW000220-1014:261:54
L. KarlssonC000010-1213:552:03
M. SassonC0001000012:180:00
A. RätyC000130-1010:250:00
C. DouglasC000040006:520:00
F. HronekD000311-2026:012:36
M. PetterssonD0000210222:100:11
Z. BuiumD000210-1020:552:13
T. WillanderD0000020020:101:43
E. PetterssonD000040-1014:190:00
V. ManciniD0000110013:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Lankinen23221.95757:36Loss
N. Tolopilo000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1N. Cousins12:54M. Amadio14:09S. Pinto11:44
Line 2D. Batherson11:34T. Stützle12:19C. Giroux11:10
Line 3D. Cozens11:08R. Greig13:10B. Tkachuk10:12
Line 4L. Eller7:53W. Foegele9:40F. Zetterlund7:49
Pair 1T. Chabot17:18A. Zub16:14
Pair 2N. Jensen14:13N. Matinpalo13:01
Pair 3J. Spence14:03T. Kleven14:14

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser11:23M. Rossi11:09L. Ohgren12:41
Line 2J. DeBrusk11:29E. Pettersson11:33N. Hoglander11:44
Line 3T. Blueger13:12L. Karlsson10:51M. Sasson10:37
Line 4D. O'Connor13:08A. Räty8:39C. Douglas6:52
Pair 1M. Pettersson17:20T. Willander14:46
Pair 2V. Mancini12:51Z. Buium16:24
Pair 3F. Hronek16:44E. Pettersson11:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.5, VAN 2.8OTT 2, VAN 0
Total goals6.32
Shots on goalOTT 29.6, VAN 23.5OTT 24, VAN 16
Win chanceOTT 61%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.640.85130%1
OTT T. Stützle2.221.02129%0
OTT D. Cozens2.240.67022%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.200.56025%0
OTT S. Pinto2.220.66125%0
OTT D. Batherson2.110.81025%0
OTT T. Chabot2.000.62113%0
OTT W. Foegele2.000.44020%0
VAN B. Boeser2.010.66029%0
OTT R. Greig1.720.47116%1
VAN L. Ohgren1.620.34016%0
VAN E. Pettersson1.610.75026%0
VAN D. O'Connor1.510.40018%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.500.49018%0
VAN F. Hronek1.530.59010%0
OTT M. Amadio1.420.51020%0
VAN M. Rossi1.410.59021%0
OTT C. Giroux1.400.61018%0
VAN T. Blueger1.410.44013%0
OTT N. Cousins1.320.38013%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.310.30012%0
OTT J. Spence1.310.3907%0
OTT T. Kleven1.110.2205%0
OTT A. Zub1.100.3217%0
VAN M. Sasson1.110.32017%0
VAN T. Willander1.100.4109%0
VAN A. Räty1.010.30013%0
VAN N. Hoglander1.020.32014%0
VAN M. Pettersson1.000.3404%0
OTT L. Eller0.900.2109%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.900.2006%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.910.1503%0
VAN Z. Buium0.820.3006%0
OTT N. Jensen0.810.2805%0
VAN V. Mancini0.600.1504%0
VAN C. Douglas0.600.1004%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.