Game Recap: OTT 2, WPG 4, December 28, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

OTT2

FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

WPG4

WPG beat OTT 4-2, with the chances close: 3.44 expected goals to 2.77. OTT outshot WPG 35 to 23. N. Ehlers led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Ehlers had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Hellebuyck stopped 33 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	1	0	2
WPG	0	2	2	4

1st 10:40OTTT. StützlePP0.10 xG
2nd 4:03OTTR. GreigPP0.12 xG
2nd 12:46WPGK. Connor0.19 xG
2nd 15:01WPGM. Scheifele0.08 xG
3rd 9:47WPGG. VilardiPP0.26 xG
3rd 11:19WPGN. Ehlers0.14 xG

Team Stats

OTTWPG

35Shots on goal23

2.77Expected goals3.44

73Shot attempts54

235v5 shots on goal18

2/4Power play1/3

21Hits15

13Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes8

4Giveaways9

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.77 xGWPG 3.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT35 on goal, 2 scored

WPG23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0	21:26	5:07
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	-2	0	19:50	1:52
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	7	4	0	0	0	19:42	5:11
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:37	2:02
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	17:39	4:45
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	20:45	4:54
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	17:08	1:48
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	16:42	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:27	1:44
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:37	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:47	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	5:30	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	-1	0	26:57	2:02
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	24:51	4:52
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	20:36	0:03
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	18:01	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	10:32	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	10:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Sogaard	23	19	4	.826	57:04	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	1	2	3	6	0	1	+2	0	14:20	3:14
M. Scheifele	C	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	20:09	3:07
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	19:34	3:09
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	4	18:08	3:15
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:20	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	15:55	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:35	1:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:10	1:08
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+2	0	12:58	1:06
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:58	0:44
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:27	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:30	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	25:48	2:37
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	19:14	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	13:36	0:17
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	22:58	1:38
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	+1	0	22:04	0:00
V. Heinola	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	12:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	35	33	2	.943	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoah Gregor WPG Faces OTT, his team until Mar 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.9, WPG 3.4	OTT 2, WPG 4
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	OTT 29.8, WPG 28.7	OTT 35, WPG 23
Win chance	WPG 59%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	7	0.76	1	30%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.0	2	1.05	2	38%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.2	6	0.72	3	25%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	0	0.71	1	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	4	0.47	1	9%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	1	1.01	2	36%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	4	0.81	1	24%	1
OTT J. Norris	2.0	1	0.56	0	28%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	5	0.42	0	19%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	3	0.79	1	32%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	0	0.86	1	14%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	0	0.60	0	20%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	1	0.42	0	7%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	0	0.47	0	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	1	0.60	1	21%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	0	0.56	0	9%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	1	0.28	0	11%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.4	1	0.40	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	2	0.47	0	18%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.4	1	0.19	0	10%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	3	0.16	0	5%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.2	3	0.30	1	13%	1
WPG C. Miller	1.2	3	0.25	1	7%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.49	0	18%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.27	0	14%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	0	0.34	0	14%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	2	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.1	0	0.20	0	11%	0
OTT C. Reinhardt	1.0	0	0.22	0	9%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	2	0.31	0	4%	0
WPG V. Heinola	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	0	0.20	1	4%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	1	0.09	0	2%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.8	1	0.14	0	6%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.4	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.