Game Recap: OTT 3, WPG 2 (OT), December 15, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT3

Final/OTMon, Dec 15, 2025Every game that night

WPG2

OTT beat WPG 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.44 expected goals to 2.96. T. Stützle led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). T. Stützle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. L. Ullmark stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	0	1	1	1	3
WPG	0	2	0	0	2

2nd 10:47OTTN. Cousins0.12 xG
2nd 15:37WPGN. Pionk0.05 xG
2nd 18:35WPGL. Stanley0.04 xG
3rd 18:06OTTJ. Sanderson0.04 xG
OT 2:11OTTB. Tkachuk0.23 xG

Team Stats

OTTWPG

31Shots on goal25

3.44Expected goals2.96

60Shot attempts59

215v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play0/2

31Hits20

14Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways11

7Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.44 xGWPG 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT31 on goal, 3 scored

WPG23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	3	3	6	3	0	+3	0	23:46	4:41
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	5	2	1	+1	0	21:06	4:45
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	9:04	0:06
K. MacDermid	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	5:23	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:16	1:39
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	18:17	4:09
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	17:49	4:11
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	16:39	0:09
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	16:03	1:39
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:02	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	14:25	1:16
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	9:29	1:13
J. Sanderson	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	+1	0	29:14	4:15
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	21:16	0:12
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:15	1:45
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	18:13	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:29	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	23	2	.920	61:28	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:41	2:30
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:19	2:25
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	15:56	2:27
M. Barron	C	0	1	1	3	4	3	+1	0	15:40	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	20:45	2:28
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:52	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:38	1:35
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:31	1:34
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:23	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:58	1:31
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:12	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:51	1:30
N. Pionk	D	1	0	1	2	3	2	0	0	24:42	1:46
L. Stanley	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	13:14	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	-1	2	24:30	2:14
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	23:41	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	22:24	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	10:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	31	28	3	.903	62:11	OT loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk14:25T. Stützle15:15F. Zetterlund13:58

Line 2D. Batherson12:45D. Cozens12:26D. Perron13:03

Line 3C. Giroux15:05R. Greig14:27M. Amadio13:47

Line 4N. Cousins8:58S. Halliday8:16K. MacDermid5:23

Pair 1J. Sanderson20:28A. Zub18:19

Pair 2T. Kleven16:38J. Spence16:39

Pair 3N. Jensen14:19N. Matinpalo12:14

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele16:39K. Connor15:24G. Vilardi14:13

Line 2A. Lowry12:33M. Barron12:22A. Iafallo12:14

Line 3N. Niederreiter12:03C. Perfetti12:59V. Namestnikov11:20

Line 4J. Toews9:21G. Nyquist9:05C. Koepke9:06

Pair 1D. DeMelo21:16J. Morrissey20:11

Pair 2D. Samberg17:32N. Pionk17:42

Pair 3L. Schenn9:21L. Stanley13:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.6, WPG 3.0	OTT 3, WPG 2
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	OTT 26.2, WPG 26.7	OTT 31, WPG 25
Win chance	WPG 58%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.7	5	0.71	1	27%	1
WPG K. Connor	3.2	1	1.18	1	38%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.5	1	0.64	2	11%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.73	0	24%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	4	0.57	0	20%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	2	1.12	0	36%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	6	0.83	3	26%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	2	0.83	1	32%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	4	0.75	0	14%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	0	0.56	1	20%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	0	0.36	0	16%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	2	0.37	1	7%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	0	0.55	0	18%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.5	2	0.42	0	20%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	2	0.42	0	19%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.5	0	0.37	0	16%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	2	0.32	0	13%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	3	0.29	1	13%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.4	0	0.43	0	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.4	0	0.39	0	5%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.3	1	0.40	0	15%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	0	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	0	0.38	0	16%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.2	1	0.17	0	3%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	1	0.25	0	12%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.2	2	0.42	0	14%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.28	0	6%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.30	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.14	0	2%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.9	4	0.23	1	5%	1
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	2	0.18	1	7%	1
OTT S. Halliday	0.8	3	0.14	0	4%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.2	0	0.04	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.