Game Recap: PHI 3, BOS 6, January 29, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

BOS6

BOS beat PHI 6-3, with the chances close: 3.52 expected goals to 3.84. PHI outshot BOS 36 to 27. F. Minten led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). O. Tippett had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Swayman stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	2	1	3
BOS	2	3	1	6

1st 9:49BOSV. Arvidsson0.10 xG
1st 10:30BOSP. Zacha0.23 xG
2nd 2:27BOSF. Minten0.12 xG
2nd 3:16PHIT. Konecny0.16 xG
2nd 16:12BOSC. Mittelstadt0.26 xG
2nd 18:40BOST. Jeannot0.09 xG
2nd 19:05PHIN. Grebenkin0.25 xG
3rd 16:30BOSM. KhusnutdinovEN0.67 xG
3rd 18:19PHIM. MichkovPP0.30 xG

Team Stats

PHIBOS

36Shots on goal27

3.84Expected goals3.52

57Shot attempts54

295v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play0/1

36Hits15

17Blocked shots9

8Penalty minutes12

17Giveaways17

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.84 xGBOS 3.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI36 on goal, 3 scored

BOS26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	2	5	1	0	-1	0	17:31	2:50
D. Barkey	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	4	16:26	1:42
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	7	2	0	-1	0	16:08	1:36
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	15:37	2:42
N. Grebenkin	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	13:43	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	12:49	1:40
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:41	2:46
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:26	1:43
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:11	2:42
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	4	5	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	7	3	-1	2	12:50	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	3	9	0	-1	0	12:12	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:06	2:51
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	21:53	0:05
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:41	0:03
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	20:43	1:30
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	2	14:45	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	13:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	20	15	5	.750	40:00	Loss
D. Vladar	6	6	0	1.000	19:46

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Minten	C	1	2	3	3	1	0	+3	0	15:00	1:17
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	2	3	1	0	0	+3	0	14:54	1:24
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+2	0	17:58	0:43
S. Kuraly	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	16:00	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	1	0	1	1	3	1	-1	0	15:04	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+3	0	13:07	0:36
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:37	0:00
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:46	0:36
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+3	0	22:40	1:09
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	14:10	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	2	11:28	0:51
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:02	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	2	2	1	2	0	+3	2	20:03	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+1	0	17:26	0:02
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:54	1:07
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+2	0	20:46	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	20:35	1:22
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	2	20:04	0:53

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	36	33	3	.917	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1N. Cates13:19D. Barkey14:44O. Tippett13:08

Line 2N. Deslauriers12:12S. Couturier13:21G. Hathaway11:59

Line 3T. Zegras13:06B. Brink13:29M. Michkov10:35

Line 4C. Dvorak11:26T. Konecny13:06N. Grebenkin13:29

Pair 1R. Ristolainen19:33T. Sanheim19:05

Pair 2J. Drysdale19:25C. York17:17

Pair 3N. Seeler13:51N. Juulsen13:35

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak20:27M. Geekie16:40P. Zacha9:56

Line 2S. Kuraly14:23T. Jeannot13:24M. Kastelic12:29

Line 3C. Mittelstadt13:00V. Arvidsson11:42F. Minten11:28

Line 4M. Eyssimont10:02M. Poitras10:37M. Khusnutdinov9:36

Pair 1N. Zadorov18:26A. Peeke18:00

Pair 2H. Lindholm16:41M. Lohrei18:19

Pair 3C. McAvoy15:45J. Aspirot15:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, BOS 3.6	PHI 3, BOS 6
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	PHI 26.0, BOS 26.0	PHI 36, BOS 27
Win chance	BOS 63%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	1	1.49	0	45%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	7	0.58	1	24%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	3	0.62	1	23%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	2	0.58	1	21%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	5	0.80	2	26%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	2.1	1	0.62	1	20%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	0	0.67	0	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	0	0.87	1	33%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.73	1	13%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	4	0.44	0	13%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.72	1	22%	1
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	0	0.42	0	8%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	0	0.40	0	8%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	0	0.43	0	16%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	2	0.42	0	15%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.3	2	0.22	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.3	1	0.42	1	13%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.2	3	0.51	3	21%	1
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.2	2	0.21	0	9%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	2	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.38	0	7%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	0	0.35	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	1	0.35	0	8%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	2	0.30	1	12%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	2	0.29	0	13%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	1	0.55	3	18%	1
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	5	0.46	0	13%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	1	0.20	2	5%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	1	0.38	0	8%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	2	0.42	1	16%	1
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	1	0.29	1	11%	1
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	0	0.17	2	6%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	1	0.18	0	9%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.7	3	0.08	0	5%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	5	0.26	1	10%	1
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.