Game Recap: PHI 3, CAR 4 (OT), October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/OTSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

CAR4

CAR beat PHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.70 expected goals to 3.48. CAR outshot PHI 39 to 23. B. Brink led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Blake had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. F. Andersen stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	1	1	1	0	3
CAR	0	3	0	1	4

1st 19:38PHIO. TippettPP0.50 xG
2nd 3:46CARL. Stankoven0.49 xG
2nd 6:18PHIB. Brink0.07 xG
2nd 9:07CART. Hall0.11 xG
2nd 18:30CARJ. Staal0.16 xG
3rd 16:00PHIT. Sanheim0.10 xG
OT 4:43CARS. Jarvis0.14 xG

Team Stats

PHICAR

23Shots on goal39

3.48Expected goals5.70

50Shot attempts87

195v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/4

27Hits24

21Blocked shots13

10Penalty minutes8

17Giveaways10

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.48 xGCAR 5.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI21 on goal, 3 scored

CAR39 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Brink	RW	1	1	2	4	2	0	0	0	17:44	2:03
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:22	2:08
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:09	2:10
T. Foerster	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:37	1:53
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	2	16:49	2:14
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	16:20	1:38
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	8:36	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	20:05	1:56
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:41	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:27	2:12
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	7	1	-1	2	10:32	0:00
J. Luchanko	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:40	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	-1	0	29:34	2:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	23:08	2:31
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	6	2	-1	0	22:56	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	16:46	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	14:22	0:00
A. Ginning	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	39	35	4	.897	64:43	OT loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	20:50	3:56
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:35	3:53
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	6	2	1	+1	2	19:27	3:44
L. Stankoven	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:19	4:01
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:50	0:05
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	2	6	0	+1	0	13:42	0:00
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	13:28	4:03
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	7:56	0:00
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	6	0	1	-1	0	19:59	4:23
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:56	3:51
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	11:22	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:26	0:21
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	20:25	4:56
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	16:48	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	2	25:56	3:37
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	23:00	3:04
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	4	19:15	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:48	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	23	20	3	.870	64:41	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett14:45T. Zegras16:01C. Dvorak14:03

Line 2B. Brink13:25T. Foerster12:48N. Cates11:48

Line 3S. Couturier13:46T. Konecny11:29M. Michkov11:15

Line 4N. Grebenkin8:36J. Luchanko7:40G. Hathaway7:45

Pair 1N. Seeler18:28T. Sanheim20:02

Pair 2J. Drysdale18:32E. Zamula16:46

Pair 3A. Ginning11:10N. Juulsen10:46

CAR

Line 1S. Aho13:17S. Jarvis13:45N. Ehlers13:46

Line 2L. Stankoven12:51J. Blake14:13A. Svechnikov11:49

Line 3J. Staal12:50J. Martinook12:04W. Carrier11:22

Line 4T. Hall9:25J. Kotkaniemi9:20E. Robinson7:09

Pair 1J. Chatfield18:25K. Miller18:49

Pair 2J. Slavin15:10S. Walker15:56

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:36A. Nikishin15:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.4, CAR 3.5	PHI 3, CAR 4
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	PHI 22.6, CAR 30.0	PHI 23, CAR 39
Win chance	CAR 68%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR N. Ehlers	2.8	6	0.94	0	31%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.7	1	1.12	1	37%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.6	0	0.75	0	25%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	5	0.97	1	33%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	1	0.89	0	30%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.2	1	0.57	0	17%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.1	2	0.45	1	20%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	2	0.75	1	25%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	2	0.52	1	20%	1
CAR S. Walker	1.9	1	0.30	0	9%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	3	0.52	1	23%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.8	6	0.52	1	20%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	2	0.55	1	20%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.7	2	0.45	0	10%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.6	3	0.55	1	19%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	1	0.70	1	13%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	3	0.45	1	17%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.4	3	0.43	1	16%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.4	2	0.49	1	17%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.46	0	11%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.30	0	10%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	4	0.51	2	16%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	1	0.29	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	2	0.32	1	7%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.2	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	2	0.32	1	13%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	1	0.38	0	14%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	2	0.22	0	3%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.0	0	0.23	0	11%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	0.9	2	0.33	1	5%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	0.9	0	0.26	0	6%	0
PHI A. Ginning	0.6	0	0.11	0	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	0	0.07	0	2%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.5	0	0.18	0	3%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.5	0	0.12	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.