Game Recap: PHI 2, CAR 3 (SO), December 14, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI2

Final/SOSun, Dec 14, 2025Every game that night

CAR3

CAR beat PHI 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.61 expected goals to 3.12. T. Zegras led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Dvorak had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. B. Bussi stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	1	0	1	0	2
CAR	2	0	0	1	3

1st 5:44CARW. Carrier0.10 xG
1st 15:53CART. HallPP0.08 xG
1st 19:07PHIJ. Drysdale0.05 xG
3rd 18:08PHIT. Zegras0.27 xG

Team Stats

PHICAR

26Shots on goal32

3.12Expected goals3.61

48Shot attempts80

155v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play1/6

23Hits10

18Blocked shots10

14Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways16

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.12 xGCAR 3.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 2 scored

CAR32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	22:39	4:47
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	19:56	2:12
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	0	18:29	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:26	1:23
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:10	1:44
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	17:50	4:22
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	15:49	4:22
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	13:18	3:55
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	11:32	0:11
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:58	0:12
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	9:17	0:08
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	6:48	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	25:36	4:02
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	31:06	1:33
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	24:39	0:13
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	17:01	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	15:54	2:25
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:59	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	32	30	2	.938	63:45	OT loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	19:32	5:46
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	17:31	1:54
T. Hall	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	13:28	3:44
W. Carrier	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:48	5:33
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	21:46	5:15
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:17	5:37
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	15:44	3:21
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:10	0:00
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	13:24	1:57
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:25	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	2	24:00	1:01
A. Nikishin	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:01	3:07
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	23:59	6:08
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:08	0:32
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	18:50	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	14:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	26	24	2	.923	65:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier13:19O. Tippett11:34M. Michkov11:14

Line 2T. Konecny13:01C. Dvorak10:50T. Zegras15:01

Line 3R. Abols8:36C. Grundstrom9:27G. Hathaway7:25

Line 4B. Brink8:58N. Cates8:06N. Grebenkin6:48

Pair 1T. Sanheim17:33C. York15:05

Pair 2J. Drysdale17:35E. Andrae12:19

Pair 3N. Seeler12:04N. Juulsen8:55

CAR

Line 1S. Aho11:15A. Svechnikov11:03S. Jarvis10:56

Line 2J. Martinook11:09W. Carrier11:28J. Staal11:35

Line 3L. Stankoven11:13N. Ehlers10:58J. Blake11:00

Line 4M. Jankowski7:29E. Robinson8:17T. Hall8:18

Pair 1S. Walker17:25K. Miller13:33

Pair 2S. Gostisbehere14:49J. Chatfield14:28

Pair 3A. Nikishin12:33J. Slavin10:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20241 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.3, CAR 3.3	PHI 2, CAR 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	PHI 21.5, CAR 29.7	PHI 26, CAR 32
Win chance	CAR 66%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	2	0.89	0	33%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.6	2	0.81	0	28%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	2	0.80	0	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	3	0.96	0	33%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.3	1	0.67	1	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.2	1	0.53	0	21%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.2	1	0.54	0	22%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.1	5	0.33	1	11%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	2	0.69	2	22%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.0	1	0.73	1	24%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	1	0.55	1	20%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.8	2	0.80	0	13%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.7	1	0.25	0	14%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.50	0	15%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	0	0.39	0	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.46	0	17%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	4	0.51	1	19%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.44	0	10%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.44	1	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	3	0.44	0	16%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	2	0.36	1	10%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	5	0.47	1	16%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	4	0.29	1	15%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.27	0	9%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	0	0.40	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	1	0.35	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	4	0.19	0	3%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.0	0	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.0	2	0.17	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	0.9	1	0.30	1	6%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	1	0.26	0	13%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
PHI C. York	0.7	0	0.24	0	5%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	0	0.19	0	9%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.