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Game Recap
PHI0
CAR3
CAR beat PHI 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.46 expected goals to 1.38. L. Stankoven led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Couturier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. F. Andersen stopped 19 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 1:31CARL. Stankoven0.07 xG
- 1st 7:30CARJ. Blake0.36 xG
- 2nd 16:16CARL. Stankoven0.21 xG
Team Stats
PHICAR
19Shots on goal23
1.38Expected goals2.46
41Shot attempts49
105v5 shots on goal15
0/4Power play0/4
49Hits30
14Blocked shots17
34Penalty minutes32
15Giveaways15
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.38 xGCAR 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:48 | 4:17 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 3:34 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 16:31 | 3:51 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:29 | 4:02 |
| P. Martone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:03 | 4:02 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:51 | 4:00 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:54 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 3:50 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Bump | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 1:14 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:08 | 3:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:57 | 3:41 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:29 | 1:16 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 4:19 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 12 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 12 | 14:36 | 1:55 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:17 | 1:55 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 5:59 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:52 | 5:42 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 | 11:43 | 1:55 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 5:59 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 6:02 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 1:43 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:06 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:13 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:06 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 2:01 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:25 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 10 | 17:58 | 5:59 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 19 | 19 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1C. Dvorak12:15T. Konecny12:47T. Zegras11:54
Line 2S. Couturier8:28L. Glendening8:22G. Hathaway8:27
Line 3N. Cates8:05T. Foerster9:47P. Martone10:09
Line 4D. Barkey9:35M. Michkov8:20A. Bump9:18
Pair 1R. Ristolainen15:51T. Sanheim14:18
Pair 2C. York12:46J. Drysdale13:56
Pair 3N. Seeler11:18N. Juulsen10:24
CAR
Line 1J. Blake11:52L. Stankoven11:19T. Hall9:48
Line 2J. Staal10:44J. Martinook10:06N. Ehlers10:52
Line 3A. Svechnikov10:50S. Jarvis8:25S. Aho9:11
Line 4E. Robinson8:16M. Jankowski8:21W. Carrier8:06
Pair 1J. Slavin14:28J. Chatfield14:15
Pair 3M. Reilly10:27S. Gostisbehere10:44
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, CAR 3.4 | PHI 0, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 22.2, CAR 29.7 | PHI 19, CAR 23 |
| Win chance | CAR 64% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI P. Martone | 2.4 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 5 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 1.8 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.7 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.6 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.4 | 5 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI A. Bump | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.