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Game Recap
PHI2
CAR3
CAR beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 4.10 expected goals to 3.67. N. Ehlers led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Robinson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. F. Andersen stopped 34 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 4:02PHIJ. DrysdalePP0.11 xG
- 1st 4:41PHIS. Couturier0.50 xG
- 1st 10:21CARN. EhlersPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 11:21CARS. Jarvis0.11 xG
- OT 18:54CART. Hall0.11 xG
Team Stats
PHICAR
36Shots on goal42
3.67Expected goals4.10
48Shot attempts78
295v5 shots on goal26
1/7Power play1/6
43Hits42
15Blocked shots8
10Penalty minutes14
19Giveaways19
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 3.67 xGCAR 4.10 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:51 | 2:05 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:45 | 0:29 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 | 8:05 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:53 | 7:34 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:36 | 7:54 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 4:17 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 5:40 |
| P. Martone | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:16 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:15 | 3:57 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:03 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 3:41 |
| A. Bump | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:25 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 29:12 | 7:47 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 31:19 | 0:49 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 28:16 | 4:26 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 27:43 | 0:17 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:40 | 5:20 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 8:49 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:47 | 6:17 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 2:13 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:04 | 5:20 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:18 | 6:20 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:40 | 5:18 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 20:51 | 6:20 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:54 | 0:32 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 28:39 | 5:11 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 23:27 | 0:04 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29:07 | 0:07 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:45 | 6:29 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 78:49 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Zegras15:01C. Dvorak15:28T. Konecny14:58
Line 2S. Couturier14:40C. Grundstrom13:01L. Glendening10:02
Line 3A. Bump13:29D. Barkey13:18P. Martone13:17
Line 4T. Foerster12:17M. Michkov11:24N. Cates10:02
Pair 1R. Ristolainen19:16T. Sanheim20:56
Pair 2J. Drysdale20:11C. York19:24
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven15:57J. Blake16:35T. Hall15:44
Line 2A. Svechnikov14:08S. Aho14:02S. Jarvis12:51
Line 3J. Staal13:12N. Ehlers11:17J. Martinook13:37
Line 4M. Jankowski9:38E. Robinson9:08W. Carrier12:17
Pair 1J. Chatfield21:04J. Slavin18:32
Pair 3M. Reilly14:20S. Gostisbehere15:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.5, CAR 3.4 | PHI 2, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 21.9, CAR 29.4 | PHI 36, CAR 42 |
| Win chance | CAR 64% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.7 | 4 | 0.85 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.4 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI P. Martone | 2.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 4 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 4 | 0.62 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 1.8 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.6 | 4 | 0.61 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.6 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.5 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.5 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI A. Bump | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 6 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.