Game Recap: PHI 3, CBJ 5, January 28, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalWed, Jan 28, 2026Every game that night

CBJ5

CBJ beat PHI 5-3, with the chances close: 3.62 expected goals to 3.22. T. Konecny scored three for PHI. T. Zegras had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. E. Merzlikins stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	0	2	3
CBJ	2	1	2	5

1st 0:38CBJC. Coyle0.18 xG
1st 9:03PHIT. Konecny0.14 xG
1st 19:40CBJK. Marchenko0.15 xG
2nd 1:58CBJE. Gudbranson0.04 xG
3rd 4:08PHIT. Konecny0.12 xG
3rd 15:14PHIT. Konecny0.24 xG
3rd 16:32CBJS. Monahan0.14 xG
3rd 18:54CBJM. OlivierEN0.91 xG

Team Stats

PHICBJ

27Shots on goal31

3.22Expected goals3.62

55Shot attempts59

165v5 shots on goal24

0/5Power play0/3

21Hits17

18Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes10

9Giveaways11

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.22 xGCBJ 3.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI27 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ31 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	3	0	3	3	1	1	+1	0	21:30	4:19
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	2	21:59	4:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	6	2	0	-1	0	21:20	4:19
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:08	2:10
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	15:52	4:01
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-2	0	15:41	0:06
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	15:31	2:44
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:50	1:23
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:12	2:14
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:16	0:06
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:54	0:06
L. Pederson	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6:48	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	26:46	3:54
C. York	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	-2	0	23:53	2:19
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	-3	2	23:36	0:06
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:18	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:11	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	1:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	30	26	4	.867	57:14	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	+1	0	18:35	3:02
C. Sillinger	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	2	14:10	0:07
M. Olivier	RW	1	1	2	2	3	1	+2	0	14:04	0:00
S. Monahan	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	17:59	0:59
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:47	3:24
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	+1	0	17:09	3:08
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	12:36	1:00
B. Jenner	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	17:46	0:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:46	3:01
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:00	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:38	0:57
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	7:30	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	22:58	3:24
D. Severson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	22:18	0:49
E. Gudbranson	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	18:35	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	22:22	0:44
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:57	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak13:51T. Zegras14:34T. Konecny12:41

Line 2O. Tippett11:55D. Barkey11:17S. Couturier12:59

Line 3M. Michkov11:05N. Cates11:09B. Brink10:58

Line 4C. Grundstrom8:52N. Grebenkin9:55L. Pederson6:42

Pair 1C. York17:43J. Drysdale19:05

Pair 2N. Seeler17:41N. Juulsen13:33

Pair 3T. Sanheim20:34R. Ristolainen1:01

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko13:35A. Fantilli13:12M. Marchment13:45

Line 2B. Jenner13:06S. Monahan12:34K. Johnson11:36

Line 3M. Olivier11:53C. Sillinger11:42C. Coyle11:26

Line 4M. Wood7:30D. Voronkov7:41I. Lundestrom7:17

Pair 1D. Severson17:21Z. Werenski16:02

Pair 2I. Provorov15:05D. Mateychuk14:45

Pair 3E. Gudbranson13:27E. Zamula13:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.1, CBJ 3.5	PHI 3, CBJ 5
Total goals	6.6	8
Shots on goal	PHI 27.4, CBJ 28.0	PHI 27, CBJ 31
Win chance	CBJ 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.2	2	1.04	2	23%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	2	0.64	0	26%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.6	4	0.80	1	30%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.5	3	0.85	1	31%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	3	0.64	0	22%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	3	0.82	3	27%	3
PHI C. Dvorak	2.2	3	0.66	1	22%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.1	1	0.62	0	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	6	0.71	0	23%	0
CBJ M. Marchment	1.9	1	0.74	0	28%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	2	0.51	0	14%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	0	0.29	0	6%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.7	0	0.29	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.67	2	23%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.6	4	0.40	0	9%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	1	0.42	2	14%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.61	1	21%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	1	0.65	1	21%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.5	0	0.48	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	2	0.47	1	11%	0
PHI C. York	1.5	4	0.41	1	11%	0
CBJ M. Wood	1.4	0	0.32	0	15%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	0	0.46	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	1.4	0	0.45	0	20%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.21	0	5%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.3	1	0.47	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	0	0.37	1	11%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.3	2	0.38	2	16%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	3	0.36	1	9%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.1	2	0.28	1	6%	1
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.9	2	0.37	0	10%	0
PHI L. Pederson	0.9	0	0.17	0	8%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.8	0	0.30	0	11%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.7	1	0.20	0	8%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.14	1	3%	0
CBJ E. Zamula	0.5	2	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.