Game Recap: PHI 1, CGY 5, December 31, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI1

FinalWed, Dec 31, 2025Every game that night

CGY5

CGY beat PHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 2.45. C. Zary led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Tippett had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	1	0	1
CGY	1	3	1	5

1st 13:30CGYM. Backlund0.04 xG
2nd 3:08CGYJ. Huberdeau0.05 xG
2nd 8:49PHIT. Konecny0.02 xG
2nd 12:03CGYR. AnderssonPP0.08 xG
2nd 17:52CGYY. SharangovichPP0.17 xG
3rd 9:37CGYC. Zary0.22 xG

Team Stats

PHICGY

26Shots on goal26

2.45Expected goals3.42

59Shot attempts65

205v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play2/3

23Hits15

18Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways10

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.45 xGCGY 3.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 1 scored

CGY25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:12	3:06
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	4	0	1	0	2	19:07	3:02
T. Zegras	C	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:55	3:01
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:16	0:59
N. Cates	LW	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:57	0:55
D. Barkey	C	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:43	2:48
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	13:38	0:46
S. Couturier	C	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:13	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	5	3	0	-1	0	12:45	0:56
R. Abols	C	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	12:12	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	12:10	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:49	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	22:38	2:10
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	22:15	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	22:04	0:29
C. York	D	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	21:14	1:34
N. Seeler	D	0	0	3	2	3	-2	2	14:38	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	13:58	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	26	21	5	.808	59:55	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	16:27	3:21
C. Zary	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+1	0	11:34	0:48
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:06	3:21
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:13	0:45
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	16:05	2:30
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:56	0:45
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:48	0:22
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	11:21	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:32	2:58
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:08	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	2	13:58	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:59	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	2	2	4	1	1	+2	2	23:32	0:47
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	23:43	2:58
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	22:34	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	21:17	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:41	0:00
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	26	26	1	1.000	60:00	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny15:37T. Zegras15:10C. Dvorak14:23

Line 2N. Cates12:19M. Michkov14:20B. Brink12:52

Line 3C. Grundstrom11:16R. Abols11:16N. Grebenkin10:49

Line 4S. Couturier11:09D. Barkey10:16O. Tippett10:49

Pair 1J. Drysdale19:35T. Sanheim17:10

Pair 2R. Ristolainen19:35C. York17:47

Pair 3N. Seeler13:25N. Juulsen13:12

CGY

Line 1Y. Sharangovich14:22N. Kadri12:51J. Farabee11:44

Line 2M. Backlund13:07M. Coronato13:06B. Coleman13:27

Line 3J. Huberdeau11:54M. Frost11:59A. Klapka13:53

Line 4J. Beecher11:31R. Lomberg11:21C. Zary10:46

Pair 1M. Weegar20:37Y. Kuznetsov20:12

Pair 2K. Bahl18:24R. Andersson17:33

Pair 3J. Hanley12:07H. Brzustewicz12:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDan Vladar PHI Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20250 saves on 0
Old teamJoel Farabee CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20251 SOG
Old teamMorgan Frost CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, CGY 3.1	PHI 1, CGY 5
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	PHI 25.6, CGY 28.3	PHI 26, CGY 26
Win chance	CGY 59%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.0	1	0.89	1	31%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	5	0.53	0	23%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	3	0.61	1	26%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	2	0.54	1	20%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	3	0.75	1	25%	1
CGY R. Andersson	2.2	2	0.59	1	14%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	1	0.71	0	23%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	4	0.52	2	12%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	0	0.54	2	23%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	3	0.61	1	28%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.9	0	0.30	0	17%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	0	0.52	0	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	1	0.46	0	20%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	1	0.46	0	14%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	1	0.77	1	25%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.6	2	0.48	0	17%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	4	0.47	0	16%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	0	0.45	0	16%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	2	0.44	0	16%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	1	0.23	0	4%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.4	2	0.43	2	18%	1
PHI D. Barkey	1.3	1	0.29	0	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.2	2	0.26	0	10%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	2	0.30	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.36	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	3	0.17	0	3%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	1	0.29	0	6%	0
CGY H. Brzustewicz	1.0	1	0.14	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.25	0	6%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.0	1	0.29	1	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.16	1	9%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.25	0	9%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.6	1	0.15	0	8%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	2	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.