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Game Recap
PHI3
FinalTue, Dec 23, 2025Every game that night
CHI1

PHI beat CHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.45. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Donato had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. S. Ersson stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PHI1113
CHI0101
  1. 1st 10:17PHIT. Konecny0.18 xG
  2. 2nd 11:13PHIN. CatesPP0.23 xG
  3. 2nd 18:30CHIR. Donato0.10 xG
  4. 3rd 17:52PHIC. GrundstromEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

PHICHI
26Shots on goal21
3.51Expected goals2.45
52Shot attempts54
155v5 shots on goal13
1/4Power play0/4
12Hits17
16Blocked shots10
10Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways17
4Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.51 xGCHI 2.45 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdPHI goal, 10:17PHI goal, 11:13CHI goal, 18:30PHI goal, 17:52

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 3 scored
CHI21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. KonecnyRW112200+1019:182:58
S. CouturierC022111+2215:440:37
T. ZegrasC011100+1218:033:02
N. CatesLW101320-1016:312:41
C. GrundstromRW101123+1213:170:00
C. DvorakC0002000016:470:16
B. BrinkRW000112-1015:122:33
O. TippettRW0001200015:092:39
R. AbolsC000212+1011:580:00
N. GrebenkinRW0001100011:030:00
M. MichkovRW0001000210:522:20
D. BarkeyC000001028:281:48
J. DrysdaleD0111000022:293:06
R. RistolainenD011000+1021:380:00
C. YorkD000403+1020:392:30
N. SeelerD0002120019:160:00
T. SanheimD0003100017:282:00
E. AndraeD0000020016:080:45
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Ersson21201.95260:00Win
D. Vladar000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. DonatoC1015000021:353:13
T. BertuzziLW000110-1021:403:40
A. BurakovskyLW0000100020:313:54
T. TeravainenC000200-1019:183:35
R. GreeneC0001010017:492:23
I. MikheyevRW000130-1016:150:00
J. DickinsonC000120-1015:350:00
O. MooreC0002000011:142:09
C. DachC000012-1211:022:19
N. LardisLW0000100210:322:54
D. ToninatoC000000006:400:00
S. LaffertyC000100005:560:00
A. LevshunovD0110020024:043:34
M. GrzelcykD011211+1022:432:50
A. VlasicD0002000218:540:04
L. CrevierD0001400017:080:04
W. KaiserD000022-2017:010:07
C. MurphyD000212-1214:370:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight25232.92058:09Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny13:00T. Zegras13:32C. Dvorak11:19
Line 2S. Couturier11:47O. Tippett11:18D. Barkey6:40
Line 3N. Grebenkin11:03R. Abols10:17C. Grundstrom11:45
Line 4N. Cates8:42M. Michkov8:32B. Brink10:04
Pair 1N. Seeler14:24R. Ristolainen17:46
Pair 2J. Drysdale15:07E. Andrae14:40
Pair 3C. York12:34T. Sanheim11:00

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson12:58I. Mikheyev14:10T. Bertuzzi16:06
Line 2A. Burakovsky13:38R. Donato14:47T. Teravainen11:04
Line 3R. Greene10:25N. Lardis7:03O. Moore7:25
Line 4D. Toninato6:40C. Dach7:52S. Lafferty5:56
Pair 1M. Grzelcyk16:49A. Levshunov17:35
Pair 2A. Vlasic14:29L. Crevier13:09
Pair 3C. Murphy10:53W. Kaiser12:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.8, CHI 2.9PHI 3, CHI 1
Total goals5.74
Shots on goalPHI 26.9, CHI 24.4PHI 26, CHI 21
Win chanceCHI 52%PHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
PHI O. Tippett2.610.61025%0
PHI T. Konecny2.320.82227%1
PHI T. Zegras2.310.79126%0
PHI M. Michkov2.110.61022%0
PHI C. Grundstrom2.110.30117%1
PHI S. Couturier2.010.55216%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.910.72030%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.810.46023%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.720.53018%0
CHI R. Donato1.650.54122%1
PHI R. Ristolainen1.600.2715%0
PHI B. Brink1.610.49017%0
PHI N. Cates1.630.48117%1
CHI A. Burakovsky1.600.71022%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.530.43011%0
CHI R. Greene1.410.43017%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.400.4714%0
PHI N. Seeler1.320.2104%0
CHI L. Crevier1.310.2707%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.320.66022%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.310.36017%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.210.41110%0
PHI R. Abols1.220.24010%0
CHI C. Dach1.200.27012%0
PHI E. Andrae1.200.2804%0
PHI C. York1.140.3708%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk1.120.3613%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.100.2507%0
CHI O. Moore1.120.37012%0
CHI C. Murphy1.020.1905%0
CHI A. Vlasic0.920.2504%0
PHI N. Grebenkin0.710.24010%0
CHI D. Toninato0.700.2209%0
CHI S. Lafferty0.710.1709%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.