Game Recap: PHI 7, COL 3, January 23, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI7

FinalFri, Jan 23, 2026Every game that night

COL3

PHI beat COL 7-3, with the chances close: 3.95 expected goals to 3.22. COL outshot PHI 35 to 20. O. Tippett scored three for PHI. M. Necas had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Ersson stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	2	1	4	7
COL	0	3	0	3

1st 15:02PHIO. Tippett0.10 xG
1st 18:57PHID. BarkeyPP0.10 xG
2nd 7:17COLP. Kelly0.23 xG
2nd 10:29COLV. Olofsson0.04 xG
2nd 11:01PHIB. Brink0.16 xG
2nd 12:12COLC. Makar0.06 xG
3rd 0:56PHIO. Tippett0.12 xG
3rd 2:00PHIM. Michkov0.06 xG
3rd 10:24PHIO. TippettSH0.24 xG
3rd 16:53PHIM. MichkovEN0.85 xG

Team Stats

PHICOL

20Shots on goal35

3.95Expected goals3.22

43Shot attempts74

135v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play0/4

21Hits15

21Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes4

23Giveaways11

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.95 xGCOL 3.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI20 on goal, 7 scored

COL35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	3	1	4	4	0	2	+1	0	16:04	2:11
M. Michkov	RW	2	1	3	5	1	0	+3	0	14:31	2:09
D. Barkey	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	2	13:51	2:06
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	19:53	1:05
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:37	0:42
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	2	15:00	1:23
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	13:13	0:40
G. Hathaway	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	8:10	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	20:48	1:10
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:12	1:11
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:30	0:00
L. Pederson	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	8:43	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	21:33	1:59
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	13:20	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+3	0	22:30	1:17
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	22:16	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	22:05	0:27
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	15:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	35	32	3	.914	59:54	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	-1	2	26:15	6:47
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	9	3	0	0	0	25:16	6:19
V. Olofsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	20:39	6:30
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	14:06	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	5:54	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	22:38	6:13
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	16:29	1:40
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	15:17	1:30
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:38	1:46
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	11:00	0:47
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	7:16	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	26:21	6:07
J. Ahcan	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	12:34	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:54	1:51
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:50	0:16
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	17:47	0:14
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	19	13	6	.684	57:38	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny15:50C. Dvorak14:59T. Zegras12:26

Line 2S. Couturier12:03O. Tippett10:55D. Barkey11:10

Line 3M. Michkov11:58B. Brink12:27N. Cates10:23

Line 4G. Hathaway6:54L. Pederson8:43C. Grundstrom10:41

Pair 1N. Seeler18:11J. Drysdale19:47

Pair 2T. Sanheim15:17C. York14:01

Pair 3N. Juulsen12:21E. Andrae13:14

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:06M. Necas16:55V. Olofsson12:05

Line 2A. Lehkonen13:23V. Nichushkin12:19B. Nelson12:57

Line 3P. Kelly11:19J. Kiviranta9:36Z. Bardakov5:54

Line 4J. Drury10:37G. Brindley9:47T. Makar7:16

Pair 1C. Makar15:58S. Malinski17:12

Pair 2J. Ahcan12:28S. Girard15:51

Pair 3B. Burns14:41J. Manson15:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, COL 4.1	PHI 7, COL 3
Total goals	6.7	10
Shots on goal	PHI 24.7, COL 31.7	PHI 20, COL 35
Win chance	COL 72%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	1	1.73	2	46%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	2	1.14	1	27%	1
COL M. Necas	2.5	9	1.24	2	34%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.4	1	0.98	0	37%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	4	0.48	4	22%	3
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	0	0.80	0	32%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	1	0.78	0	32%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	1	0.71	1	25%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	2	0.45	0	8%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	1	0.65	0	23%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.0	3	0.57	0	20%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	5	0.47	3	18%	2
COL B. Burns	1.9	1	0.45	0	11%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.8	3	0.56	1	24%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.7	0	0.25	0	15%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.40	1	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	2	0.43	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.35	1	14%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.3	0	0.36	1	14%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	2	0.37	1	15%	1
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.38	0	14%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	1	0.31	1	6%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.2	2	0.34	2	12%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	0	0.30	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	3	0.37	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	2	0.35	0	7%	0
PHI L. Pederson	0.9	0	0.16	0	8%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.16	1	9%	0
COL T. Makar	0.7	1	0.10	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.7	3	0.18	0	9%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.7	0	0.14	1	2%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.11	0	2%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	1	0.24	1	6%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.5	1	0.12	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.