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Game Recap
PHI1
DAL5
DAL beat PHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.65 expected goals to 1.46. J. Robertson scored three for DAL. J. Robertson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Oettinger stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 3:48DALL. Bichsel0.03 xG
- 2nd 11:39DALJ. Robertson0.08 xG
- 2nd 17:02DALJ. Robertson0.11 xG
- 3rd 9:29DALJ. RobertsonPP0.16 xG
- 3rd 10:57PHIC. Dvorak0.19 xG
- 3rd 13:51DALT. Seguin0.08 xG
Team Stats
PHIDAL
21Shots on goal28
1.46Expected goals3.65
43Shot attempts60
195v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play1/2
32Hits23
12Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways11
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.46 xGDAL 3.65 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:01 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:36 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 1:24 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:08 | 0:59 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:03 | 1:06 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:54 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:57 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:03 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:31 | 1:06 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:25 | 0:54 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:44 | 2:52 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:52 |
| T. Seguin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:02 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 2:53 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:03 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 1:53 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:58 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:04 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:01 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:43 | 0:06 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:36 | 2:18 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:38 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 21 | 20 | 1 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1N. Cates14:06T. Foerster15:05B. Brink14:57
Line 2C. Dvorak14:48T. Zegras14:55O. Tippett13:13
Line 3S. Couturier14:06M. Michkov13:32T. Konecny14:33
Line 4G. Hathaway11:58N. Grebenkin12:20R. Abols11:10
Pair 1N. Juulsen20:32E. Andrae21:08
Pair 2T. Sanheim19:41C. York18:35
Pair 3N. Seeler14:40J. Drysdale15:21
DAL
Line 1W. Johnston15:29S. Steel14:42M. Rantanen13:53
Line 2T. Seguin14:10J. Robertson13:52R. Hintz12:39
Line 3M. Bourque13:53J. Hryckowian15:02O. Bäck13:14
Line 4C. Blackwell13:09N. Bastian12:43R. Faksa11:50
Pair 1E. Lindell21:14M. Heiskanen19:55
Pair 2A. Petrovic18:12L. Bichsel20:06
Pair 3K. Capobianco15:00I. Lyubushkin15:37
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.5, DAL 3.4 | PHI 1, DAL 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 25.8, DAL 25.2 | PHI 21, DAL 28 |
| Win chance | DAL 64% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.0 | 6 | 1.18 | 3 | 39% | 3 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.5 | 2 | 1.23 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.4 | 0 | 0.94 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 3 | 0.95 | 3 | 34% | 0 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 5 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 2.0 | 2 | 0.74 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.9 | 3 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 0.9 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL N. Bastian | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.07 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.