Game Recap: PHI 5, DET 3, March 28, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI5

FinalSat, Mar 28, 2026Every game that night

DET3

PHI beat DET 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.37 expected goals to 2.56. DET outshot PHI 35 to 26. O. Tippett scored three for PHI. A. DeBrincat had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. D. Vladar stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	2	2	5
DET	0	0	3	3

1st 4:07PHIO. Tippett0.17 xG
2nd 12:22PHIO. Tippett0.17 xG
2nd 16:08PHIN. CatesPP0.07 xG
3rd 7:19PHIO. TippettPP0.17 xG
3rd 13:43DETM. Appleton0.17 xG
3rd 15:10DETA. DeBrincat0.10 xG
3rd 16:14DETL. Raymond0.07 xG
3rd 17:56PHIS. CouturierEN0.77 xG

Team Stats

PHIDET

26Shots on goal35

4.37Expected goals2.56

45Shot attempts63

195v5 shots on goal24

2/2Power play0/2

25Hits22

14Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes16

14Giveaways12

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 4.37 xGDET 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI24 on goal, 5 scored

DET35 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	3	1	4	7	1	0	+2	0	16:38	0:12
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	2	2	2	-1	0	17:00	1:24
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	18:12	1:22
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:35	0:00
D. Barkey	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	14:44	0:10
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	12:59	1:01
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	12:58	1:22
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:46	0:33
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	13:43	0:00
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:08	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	11:22	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	11:09	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	2	19:37	0:17
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	26:00	0:12
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	23:27	1:17
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	21:59	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:43	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	14:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	35	32	3	.914	59:46	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	20:40	3:29
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	8	0	1	0	0	22:36	3:39
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:53	2:59
M. Appleton	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	2	10:24	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:07	0:45
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	18:42	3:15
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:33	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	13:51	0:00
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:11	0:31
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:32	0:21
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	10:04	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10	9:21	0:39
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	5	1	1	0	0	28:09	3:32
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:29	0:28
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	20:29	0:19
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	18:30	0:03
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:52	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	21	17	4	.810	47:19	Loss
C. Talbot	4	4	0	1.000	9:28

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Zegras14:24O. Tippett13:15D. Barkey12:34

Line 2C. Dvorak13:50T. Konecny13:50A. Bump13:08

Line 3C. Grundstrom11:19M. Michkov11:36N. Cates10:30

Line 4S. Couturier10:56L. Glendening10:27G. Hathaway10:26

Pair 1R. Ristolainen19:10T. Sanheim19:56

Pair 2C. York16:01J. Drysdale16:37

Pair 3N. Seeler13:56E. Andrae13:55

DET

Line 1A. Copp15:39A. DeBrincat14:56P. Kane13:50

Line 2L. Raymond13:44D. Larkin12:21J. Compher14:03

Line 3M. Kasper12:57E. Finnie11:47C. Mazur9:48

Line 4M. Appleton10:24D. Shine10:04D. Perron8:42

Pair 1M. Seider19:47S. Edvinsson18:16

Pair 2B. Chiarot16:44J. Faulk16:01

Pair 3A. Johansson13:31J. Bernard-Docker13:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayLucas Raymond DET Turns 24 that day1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, DET 3.0	PHI 5, DET 3
Total goals	5.8	8
Shots on goal	PHI 25.0, DET 26.0	PHI 26, DET 35
Win chance	DET 53%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	8	1.02	1	36%	1
PHI O. Tippett	3.0	7	0.65	4	28%	3
DET D. Larkin	2.8	3	0.88	0	34%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	3	0.88	2	26%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	2	0.87	2	30%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	2	0.96	1	29%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	5	0.64	2	11%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	1	0.65	1	24%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	0	0.71	1	24%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.9	2	0.62	0	21%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	1	0.33	0	6%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.6	0	0.35	0	16%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.6	1	0.42	1	14%	1
DET J. Faulk	1.5	1	0.43	1	10%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.5	0	0.46	0	17%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	3	0.52	1	19%	1
DET A. Copp	1.5	1	0.57	0	17%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.5	1	0.37	0	16%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.4	1	0.25	0	14%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	1	0.49	0	19%	0
DET D. Perron	1.4	0	0.46	0	19%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	2	0.38	2	10%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.42	0	10%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	1	0.31	0	7%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.18	0	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	3	0.34	0	11%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	0	0.33	1	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	0	0.14	0	3%	0
DET M. Appleton	0.9	1	0.23	1	9%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.8	4	0.15	0	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	2	0.12	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.5	1	0.11	0	3%	0
DET D. Shine	0.5	1	0.15	0	8%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.