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Game Recap
PHI3
FinalThu, Apr 9, 2026Every game that night
DET6

DET beat PHI 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 1.89 expected goals to 2.42. M. Seider led the way with 5 points (1 G, 4 A). J. Drysdale had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Gibson stopped 13 of 15.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PHI1113
DET1326
  1. 1st 2:28DETA. DeBrincatPP0.11 xG
  2. 1st 13:24PHIC. Dvorak0.09 xG
  3. 2nd 0:32DETM. SeiderPP0.11 xG
  4. 2nd 1:50DETD. LarkinPP0.19 xG
  5. 2nd 4:56DETD. LarkinSH0.19 xG
  6. 2nd 9:25PHIP. MartonePP0.34 xG
  7. 3rd 7:01DETP. Kane0.15 xG
  8. 3rd 11:39DETD. Larkin0.13 xG
  9. 3rd 18:09PHIL. Glendening0.10 xG

Team Stats

PHIDET
27Shots on goal22
2.42Expected goals1.89
54Shot attempts37
195v5 shots on goal13
1/6Power play3/4
30Hits20
13Blocked shots12
12Penalty minutes16
12Giveaways9
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.42 xGDET 1.89 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdDET goal, 2:28PHI goal, 13:24DET goal, 0:32DET goal, 1:50DET goal, 4:56PHI goal, 9:25DET goal, 7:01DET goal, 11:39PHI goal, 18:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI27 on goal, 3 scored
DET19 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. MartoneRW1123400219:465:43
T. ZegrasC011131-2219:175:56
C. DvorakC1012000018:394:50
T. KonecnyRW0113500014:593:35
S. CouturierC011051+1013:050:07
L. GlendeningC101200+1010:250:00
D. BarkeyC0111000010:050:07
T. FoersterRW000402-2218:085:36
O. TippettRW000010-1216:473:43
N. CatesLW0002410016:064:36
M. MichkovRW0000000213:533:26
A. BumpLW000130-1011:270:07
J. DrysdaleD0114000023:045:14
C. YorkD0000040021:450:25
T. SanheimD000301-1018:580:42
R. RistolainenD000100-1218:513:38
N. SeelerD000031+1015:200:00
E. AndraeD000022+1012:570:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar844.50024:56Loss
S. Ersson14122.85735:04

DET Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. LarkinC314400+2019:343:02
P. KaneRW123310+1015:093:03
L. RaymondLW0224200217:081:29
A. DeBrincatRW101310+1016:063:02
A. CoppC0002110018:050:00
J. CompherLW000000-1018:030:41
E. FinnieC0000200014:590:54
D. PerronLW000040-1014:162:10
C. MazurLW0000120011:170:00
M. KasperC000000-1010:290:00
J. van RiemsdykLW000002-109:000:55
D. ShineRW000000006:260:00
M. SeiderD145320+2222:063:01
S. EdvinssonD011001+2220:340:13
A. JohanssonD011012-1218:360:00
B. ChiarotD000120+2221:250:04
J. FaulkD0002330618:400:55
J. Bernard-DockerD000001-2015:400:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Gibson15132.86730:40Win
C. Talbot12111.91729:20

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Zegras13:16T. Foerster12:32O. Tippett12:49
Line 2C. Dvorak11:20P. Martone13:42T. Konecny10:30
Line 3S. Couturier9:57D. Barkey9:37L. Glendening8:07
Line 4A. Bump10:47N. Cates9:53M. Michkov10:07
Pair 1C. York17:58J. Drysdale16:08
Pair 2R. Ristolainen13:58T. Sanheim15:01
Pair 3N. Seeler12:41E. Andrae12:57

DET

Line 1L. Raymond13:38D. Larkin12:26E. Finnie12:11
Line 2A. Copp12:38A. DeBrincat12:01P. Kane11:25
Line 3D. Perron12:06J. Compher11:37C. Mazur11:17
Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:05M. Kasper8:31D. Shine6:26
Pair 1B. Chiarot16:57J. Faulk15:09
Pair 2M. Seider14:26S. Edvinsson14:37
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker13:15A. Johansson14:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.9, DET 3.2PHI 3, DET 6
Total goals6.09
Shots on goalPHI 25.2, DET 26.2PHI 27, DET 22
Win chanceDET 55%DET won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
DET A. DeBrincat3.331.03137%1
PHI P. Martone2.930.49216%1
DET D. Larkin2.840.88434%3
PHI O. Tippett2.700.62027%0
DET P. Kane2.530.92327%1
DET M. Seider2.130.66510%1
DET L. Raymond2.140.94229%0
PHI T. Konecny2.130.79127%0
PHI M. Michkov1.900.59021%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.820.59120%1
PHI T. Foerster1.840.51025%0
PHI T. Zegras1.810.66122%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.610.3606%0
DET A. Copp1.520.60018%0
PHI S. Couturier1.500.40113%0
DET J. Faulk1.520.42010%0
PHI N. Cates1.420.48017%0
DET M. Kasper1.400.30014%0
DET E. Finnie1.400.37016%0
DET D. Perron1.300.46020%0
DET J. Compher1.300.44018%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.230.41010%0
PHI A. Bump1.210.41015%0
DET B. Chiarot1.210.1906%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.240.3318%0
DET S. Edvinsson1.200.37111%0
PHI C. York1.100.2806%0
PHI D. Barkey1.010.33113%0
DET J. Riemsdyk1.000.35014%0
PHI N. Seeler0.900.1403%0
PHI L. Glendening0.820.1418%1
DET A. Johansson0.700.1314%0
DET J. Bernard-Docker0.600.1303%0
DET D. Shine0.500.1509%0
PHI E. Andrae0.500.1302%0
DET C. Mazur0.500.1308%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.