Game Recap: PHI 5, EDM 2, January 3, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PHI5

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

EDM2

PHI beat EDM 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 2.31. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Couturier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. D. Vladar stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	3	0	2	5
EDM	1	1	0	2

1st 7:16PHID. Barkey0.23 xG
1st 10:31PHIT. Sanheim0.08 xG
1st 14:38PHIB. Brink0.07 xG
1st 16:08EDMC. McDavid0.12 xG
2nd 9:54EDME. BouchardPP0.13 xG
3rd 9:09PHIN. Seeler0.01 xG
3rd 18:50PHIO. TippettEN0.83 xG

Team Stats

PHIEDM

29Shots on goal25

3.61Expected goals2.31

63Shot attempts51

225v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play1/2

15Hits12

15Blocked shots18

11Penalty minutes9

11Giveaways15

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.61 xGEDM 2.31 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI28 on goal, 5 scored

EDM25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	15:58	1:42
S. Couturier	C	0	2	2	6	0	0	+2	0	15:37	0:14
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	14:36	1:02
D. Barkey	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:11	1:44
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	13:37	1:45
R. Abols	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	10:41	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:29	2:26
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	20:11	2:15
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:24	2:02
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:57	1:20
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:54	0:13
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	7	10:03	0:00
N. Seeler	D	1	1	2	2	0	4	+2	0	18:23	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	24:36	2:13
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	2	0	5	+1	0	23:20	1:12
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+2	0	19:16	1:34
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:02	0:05
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	15:52	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	25	23	2	.920	59:46	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	6	3	0	-1	0	23:17	2:37
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	-1	0	19:21	2:37
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:17	2:37
L. Draisaitl	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	21:13	2:37
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:18	0:30
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	16:08	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:35	0:30
I. Howard	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:52	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:57	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	10:16	0:30
Q. Hutson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:17	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:39	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	27:39	2:37
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	2	25:14	0:30
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-3	0	18:01	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	5	16:56	0:30
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:30	0:00
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	2	14:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Pickard	28	24	4	.857	57:09	Loss
C. Ingram	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak14:22T. Zegras15:42T. Konecny13:40

Line 2S. Couturier12:53O. Tippett12:56D. Barkey11:39

Line 3M. Michkov11:44B. Brink13:33N. Cates10:54

Line 4C. Grundstrom11:40R. Abols10:41G. Hathaway9:30

Pair 1T. Sanheim17:56C. York17:46

Pair 2N. Seeler16:23R. Ristolainen16:05

Pair 3J. Drysdale15:57E. Andrae15:39

EDM

Line 1Z. Hyman15:43C. McDavid16:25R. Nugent-Hopkins12:59

Line 2J. Roslovic15:40V. Podkolzin14:57L. Draisaitl15:25

Line 3I. Howard11:52Q. Hutson9:17M. Savoie8:06

Line 4A. Henrique10:22T. Frederic8:39M. Janmark9:41

Pair 1M. Ekholm20:33E. Bouchard20:12

Pair 2D. Nurse15:14A. Regula14:13

Pair 3S. Stastney15:53T. Emberson13:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, EDM 3.4	PHI 5, EDM 2
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	PHI 25.9, EDM 27.8	PHI 29, EDM 25
Win chance	EDM 59%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	6	1.65	2	40%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	3	0.90	0	40%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	1	1.42	0	44%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	4	1.07	1	20%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	2	0.55	2	23%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.83	0	27%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	2	0.78	0	24%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	1	0.58	1	20%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	1	0.41	0	11%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.9	1	0.31	0	17%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	4	0.85	1	25%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.8	3	0.50	1	11%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	1.8	0	0.54	0	21%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.7	1	0.53	0	18%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	6	0.48	2	14%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	0	0.46	0	16%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.41	0	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	2	0.47	1	16%	1
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	2	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.3	1	0.34	1	12%	1
PHI R. Abols	1.2	2	0.27	1	10%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.2	1	0.33	0	16%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.2	2	0.33	1	8%	1
EDM M. Savoie	1.1	0	0.29	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.38	0	8%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	2	0.17	2	3%	1
EDM I. Howard	1.0	0	0.23	0	11%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	2	0.30	1	7%	0
EDM S. Stastney	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.9	0	0.22	0	3%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.8	0	0.20	0	11%	0
EDM Q. Hutson	0.8	0	0.23	0	11%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.18	0	9%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	0	0.13	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.7	0	0.25	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.