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Game Recap
PHI1
FLA2
FLA beat PHI 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.19 expected goals to 1.90. FLA outshot PHI 34 to 20. A. Lundell had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| FLA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 5:29FLAA. LundellPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 17:48PHIN. Cates0.41 xG
- 3rd 2:19FLAB. Marchand0.01 xG
Team Stats
PHIFLA
20Shots on goal34
1.90Expected goals3.19
37Shot attempts63
185v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play1/5
17Hits27
10Blocked shots5
10Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways11
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.90 xGFLA 3.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:15 | 1:15 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 1:10 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:59 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:58 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 1:15 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:57 | 0:58 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:54 | 1:03 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:58 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:03 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:03 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:03 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27:15 | 1:02 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:54 | 1:14 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:17 |
| A. Ginning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:02 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 4:08 |
| A. Lundell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:36 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:58 | 2:15 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:01 | 5:09 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 4:31 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:50 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 2:31 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:35 | 2:47 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 2:23 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:43 | 0:02 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:24 | 1:18 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:20 | 4:35 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:09 | 3:43 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 59:24 | Win |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1S. Couturier14:16C. Dvorak15:02M. Michkov13:25
Line 2B. Brink13:56T. Foerster14:12N. Cates13:03
Line 3O. Tippett11:13T. Zegras13:07T. Konecny11:10
Line 4N. Deslauriers7:28G. Hathaway7:32R. Abols7:05
Pair 1N. Seeler15:55T. Sanheim18:33
Pair 2J. Drysdale18:34A. Ginning14:04
Pair 3N. Juulsen12:35E. Zamula14:50
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart14:17A. Lundell13:00E. Luostarinen14:12
Line 2B. Marchand12:48S. Bennett12:57C. Verhaeghe12:21
Line 3M. Samoskevich12:48E. Rodrigues13:06J. Boqvist11:46
Line 4A. Greer8:03J. Gadjovich8:07L. Kunin8:07
Pair 1G. Forsling20:30A. Ekblad17:09
Pair 2N. Mikkola21:24S. Jones15:59
Pair 3J. Petry13:24D. Kulikov6:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.5, FLA 3.5 | PHI 1, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 24.6, FLA 29.2 | PHI 20, FLA 34 |
| Win chance | FLA 67% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.8 | 3 | 1.09 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.8 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.7 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 6 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.0 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 1.9 | 6 | 0.63 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.7 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI A. Ginning | 0.6 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.