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Game Recap
PHI4
FLA2
PHI beat FLA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.60 expected goals to 2.70. FLA outshot PHI 27 to 18. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Vladar stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:21FLAB. Marchand0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:16FLAC. Verhaeghe0.02 xG
- 2nd 7:57PHIE. Andrae0.03 xG
- 2nd 11:13PHIM. Michkov0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:14PHIT. Foerster0.03 xG
- 3rd 19:35PHIS. Couturier0.02 xG
Team Stats
PHIFLA
18Shots on goal27
1.60Expected goals2.70
51Shot attempts58
185v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play0/3
17Hits33
15Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways20
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.60 xGFLA 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:55 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:42 | 1:03 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:57 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:46 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:46 | 0:59 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:07 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:51 | 1:08 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:06 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:02 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:04 |
| E. Andrae | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:37 | 0:53 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:11 | 1:01 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:03 | 0:59 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 3:49 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:11 | 2:15 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 2:43 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:38 | 4:07 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:58 | 1:52 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:08 | 3:17 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:55 | 3:46 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 2:11 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Devine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 2:50 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:55 | 2:54 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:16 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 60:00 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny15:37N. Cates15:27T. Foerster14:01
Line 2O. Tippett14:21T. Zegras16:36C. Dvorak13:33
Line 3S. Couturier11:16B. Brink11:43M. Michkov11:16
Line 4R. Abols11:02N. Grebenkin10:57G. Hathaway9:46
Pair 1T. Sanheim20:40C. York18:29
Pair 2J. Drysdale22:29E. Andrae17:44
Pair 3N. Seeler14:12N. Juulsen10:51
FLA
Line 1C. Verhaeghe15:31S. Bennett15:07A. Greer14:17
Line 2S. Reinhart14:32E. Rodrigues15:20J. Boqvist13:27
Line 3B. Marchand14:08A. Lundell13:09M. Samoskevich13:51
Pair 1G. Forsling20:30A. Ekblad18:04
Pair 2S. Jones17:59N. Mikkola19:47
Pair 3J. Petry13:06U. Balinskis14:10
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.5, FLA 3.3 | PHI 4, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 24.2, FLA 27.8 | PHI 18, FLA 27 |
| Win chance | FLA 64% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.5 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.3 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 2.3 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.2 | 4 | 0.80 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.2 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.1 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| FLA S. Jones | 1.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.2 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 2 | 2% | 1 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.0 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.5 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.