Game Recap: PHI 4, LAK 3 (SO), March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI4

Final/SOThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

LAK3

PHI beat LAK 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.45 expected goals to 2.40. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Ersson stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	0	3	0	1	4
LAK	1	1	1	0	3

1st 19:31LAKQ. Byfield0.12 xG
2nd 0:26PHIT. Konecny0.08 xG
2nd 0:47LAKA. Kopitar0.34 xG
2nd 4:12PHIN. Cates0.03 xG
2nd 6:59PHIT. Sanheim0.04 xG
3rd 10:28LAKA. PanarinPP0.04 xG

Team Stats

PHILAK

20Shots on goal25

2.45Expected goals2.40

48Shot attempts69

165v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play1/4

20Hits18

22Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways13

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.45 xGLAK 2.40 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI19 on goal, 3 scored

LAK24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	1	1	2	2	0	2	+2	2	20:27	2:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	2	17:04	2:00
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	20:15	2:04
A. Bump	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	11:34	1:58
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	22:43	1:58
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	2	3	-1	2	21:17	1:53
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:22	1:45
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	15:00	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	3	3	-1	0	11:22	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:44	0:00
G. Wilson	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	10:03	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+3	0	21:57	2:06
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+3	0	26:54	0:23
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	23:03	1:52
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	22:53	1:59
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:03	0:02
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:19	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	6:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	25	22	3	.880	65:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	2	26:25	7:39
A. Kopitar	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:58	5:09
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	3	7	0	-1	0	20:59	4:47
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:29	2:43
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	17:08	2:49
S. Laughton	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	16:36	2:42
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	22:02	4:55
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:31	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:08	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	8:28	0:02
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:19	0:03
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:12	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	23:45	5:05
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	2	22:49	2:18
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-2	0	20:24	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	18:35	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:41	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:16	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	20	17	3	.850	64:15	OT loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak16:27T. Konecny14:58A. Bump9:36

Line 2O. Tippett14:42T. Zegras14:27N. Grebenkin10:44

Line 3C. Grundstrom11:45M. Michkov13:10N. Cates13:37

Line 4G. Wilson10:03G. Hathaway8:15

Pair 1R. Ristolainen17:42T. Sanheim16:57

Pair 2J. Drysdale18:58C. York15:10

Pair 3N. Seeler12:56N. Juulsen12:12

LAK

Line 1A. Kopitar14:50A. Panarin15:14A. Kempe13:40

Line 2A. Laferriere13:46Q. Byfield13:09T. Moore12:31

Line 3S. Laughton11:45J. Wright11:31A. Turcotte11:08

Line 4J. Malott8:26S. Helenius8:16T. Ward8:12

Pair 1D. Doughty16:56M. Anderson18:26

Pair 2J. Edmundson15:42B. Clarke15:18

Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:16C. Ceci14:54

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamScott Laughton LAK Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20251 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.5, LAK 3.2	PHI 4, LAK 3
Total goals	5.6	7
Shots on goal	PHI 23.6, LAK 26.7	PHI 20, LAK 25
Win chance	LAK 63%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	3	0.62	0	26%	0
LAK A. Panarin	2.7	4	1.29	2	36%	1
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	3	1.04	0	37%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	3	0.65	1	26%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	1	0.88	1	28%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.62	1	25%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	1	0.68	1	24%	1
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	1	0.69	0	23%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	1	0.55	2	20%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.9	1	0.59	1	12%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.8	2	0.56	0	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	0	0.24	2	4%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.4	1	0.42	1	16%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.85	1	26%	1
LAK S. Laughton	1.4	2	0.45	1	18%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.4	1	0.23	0	13%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	1	0.48	0	12%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.37	0	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.3	2	0.41	2	14%	1
LAK J. Wright	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
PHI C. York	1.2	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.1	1	0.34	1	7%	1
LAK T. Ward	1.1	0	0.26	0	12%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.0	2	0.30	0	10%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.9	0	0.13	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.9	0	0.19	0	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	1	0.28	0	6%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	0	0.24	0	11%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	2	0.16	0	8%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	0	0.23	0	8%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.