Game Recap: PHI 3, MIN 2 (SO), March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/SOThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

MIN2

PHI beat MIN 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.60 expected goals to 3.14. Q. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). O. Tippett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. D. Vladar stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	1	0	1	1	3
MIN	0	2	0	0	2

1st 18:35PHIE. Andrae0.12 xG
2nd 8:39MINM. BoldyPP0.06 xG
2nd 17:50MINK. Kaprizov0.11 xG
3rd 7:58PHIO. TippettSH0.04 xG

Team Stats

PHIMIN

27Shots on goal23

2.60Expected goals3.14

52Shot attempts53

215v5 shots on goal16

0/4Power play1/3

21Hits32

10Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways16

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.60 xGMIN 3.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI27 on goal, 2 scored

MIN23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	21:06	5:19
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	6	3	1	0	0	20:25	4:54
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+2	0	13:17	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	25:15	6:16
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:27	2:57
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	15:56	3:16
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:10	1:51
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:28	0:17
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:27	1:34
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:50	0:07
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	12:13	2:03
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:22	0:06
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	24:05	0:12
E. Andrae	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	13:22	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	24:23	5:14
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	23:02	2:39
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:26	0:07
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	2	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	23	21	2	.913	64:33	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	24:52	3:39
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	20:43	3:36
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	19:19	3:29
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	0	22:47	3:34
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:29	0:41
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:52	0:39
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:45	0:33
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	12:43	0:36
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	+1	0	11:49	0:10
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	11:23	0:10
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	10:55	0:10
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	8:27	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	+1	2	27:57	3:34
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	27:14	0:46
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:02	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:24	0:08
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	18:05	0:10
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:07	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	27	25	2	.926	64:52	OT loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny17:55C. Dvorak13:52A. Bump11:40

Line 2O. Tippett14:12T. Zegras14:43C. Grundstrom13:01

Line 3S. Couturier11:39N. Grebenkin12:37G. Hathaway8:47

Line 4D. Barkey10:10N. Cates10:17M. Michkov10:54

Pair 1R. Ristolainen19:05T. Sanheim18:26

Pair 2C. York17:26J. Drysdale18:22

Pair 3N. Seeler13:27E. Andrae13:22

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman15:03M. Zuccarello15:23K. Kaprizov19:32

Line 2J. Ek15:04M. Boldy14:20M. Johansson13:05

Line 3V. Tarasenko11:31D. Yurov10:43R. Fabbri8:27

Line 4N. Foligno8:23Y. Trenin9:30M. McCarron8:44

Pair 1Q. Hughes22:28B. Faber20:32

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:00J. Brodin16:52

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:57J. Middleton12:21

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAlex Bump PHI Plays near home (born in Burnsville)0 SOG
HometownNoah Cates PHI Plays near home (born in Stillwater)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, MIN 3.5	PHI 3, MIN 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	PHI 25.7, MIN 27.5	PHI 27, MIN 23
Win chance	MIN 66%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	1	1.38	1	47%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	4	1.15	1	37%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	6	0.56	1	24%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.6	5	0.81	0	29%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	3	1.10	2	15%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	3	0.81	0	27%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	3	0.55	0	21%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	1	0.64	1	22%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	1	0.55	0	24%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	2	0.93	1	25%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.9	1	0.53	0	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.8	2	0.22	0	4%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	2	0.50	1	13%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	1	0.58	0	23%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.6	0	0.39	0	12%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	2	0.35	0	8%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.5	0	0.22	1	13%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	1	0.32	0	7%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	1	0.41	0	14%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.34	1	8%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.26	0	12%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	0	0.52	0	16%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.32	0	14%	0
MIN R. Fabbri	1.1	0	0.34	0	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	2	0.33	0	9%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	0	0.44	0	16%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	2	0.13	0	3%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	0	0.30	0	10%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.0	0	0.30	0	6%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.26	0	6%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	0	0.35	0	13%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	0	0.20	0	5%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.25	0	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.6	3	0.12	1	2%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.