Game Recap: PHI 5, MTL 4 (SO), November 4, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI5

Final/SOTue, Nov 4, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

PHI beat MTL 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.86 expected goals to 3.02. PHI outshot MTL 42 to 20. K. Dach led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). O. Tippett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Vladar stopped 16 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	3	0	1	1	5
MTL	0	4	0	0	4

1st 1:56PHIB. Brink0.04 xG
1st 7:07PHIC. YorkPP0.15 xG
1st 7:50PHIB. BrinkPP0.08 xG
2nd 3:12MTLK. Dach0.37 xG
2nd 4:15MTLN. SuzukiPP0.13 xG
2nd 13:28MTLK. Dach0.13 xG
2nd 15:57MTLI. DemidovPP0.16 xG
3rd 10:51PHIN. Grebenkin0.04 xG

Team Stats

PHIMTL

42Shots on goal20

4.86Expected goals3.02

72Shot attempts46

275v5 shots on goal13

2/6Power play2/4

22Hits26

10Blocked shots15

15Penalty minutes19

17Giveaways17

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 4.86 xGMTL 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI42 on goal, 4 scored

MTL20 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	0	2	2	5	0	0	-1	0	23:24	6:02
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	5	3	0	+1	0	21:26	3:52
B. Brink	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	2	15:25	4:28
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	18:44	4:26
N. Grebenkin	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:41	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	23:56	2:53
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	21:24	4:27
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	19:48	3:22
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:28	3:39
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	2	10:38	0:03
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	5	6:24	0:00
J. Gaucher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:23	0:00
C. York	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	0	25:47	3:35
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	25:44	4:33
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	2	25:06	0:04
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	2	19:01	0:03
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	20	16	4	.800	64:55	Win
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Demidov	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	2	15:21	3:59
K. Dach	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+1	2	13:29	1:21
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	21:27	4:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2	20:26	4:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	18:29	3:12
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	11:51	1:23
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:26	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	0	16:19	1:22
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:59	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:16	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+2	0	12:51	2:11
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	11:15	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	23:23	4:10
N. Dobson	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+1	2	23:58	1:12
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	0	6	1	0	0	15:03	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	27:51	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:47	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	5	10:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	42	38	4	.905	65:00	OT loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak16:00T. Zegras15:24O. Tippett14:25

Line 2T. Konecny14:46N. Cates13:02N. Grebenkin9:41

Line 3S. Couturier12:22M. Michkov10:48B. Brink10:10

Line 4N. Deslauriers6:24J. Gaucher6:23G. Hathaway9:25

Pair 1N. Seeler17:44J. Drysdale19:15

Pair 2T. Sanheim19:50C. York16:13

Pair 3N. Juulsen9:45E. Andrae10:13

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield14:32J. Slafkovský14:30N. Suzuki14:19

Line 2J. Evans10:42J. Veleno11:10J. Anderson10:53

Line 3K. Dach11:09Z. Bolduc10:40B. Gallagher10:28

Line 4A. Newhook10:39O. Kapanen10:20I. Demidov9:43

Pair 1M. Matheson19:39N. Dobson18:44

Pair 2J. Struble15:00L. Hutson16:18

Pair 3A. Carrier13:26A. Xhekaj9:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChristian Dvorak PHI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, MTL 3.3	PHI 5, MTL 4
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	PHI 25.0, MTL 25.5	PHI 42, MTL 20
Win chance	MTL 59%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.9	1	0.88	1	36%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	6	0.58	0	26%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	5	0.81	2	28%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	3	0.66	0	22%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	2	0.64	1	12%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	1.04	1	29%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.0	1	0.57	0	17%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	1	0.70	1	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	5	0.71	2	24%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	1	0.53	0	12%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	4	0.53	1	19%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	1	0.47	0	21%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	1	0.44	1	17%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	3	0.40	1	10%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	3	0.53	2	18%	2
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	0	0.33	0	17%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	4	0.47	0	18%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.4	2	0.45	0	19%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	4	0.25	0	4%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	4	0.39	2	14%	2
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.36	1	8%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.2	3	0.66	2	18%	1
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	1	0.90	2	8%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	2	0.36	2	8%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.1	0	0.37	0	14%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.41	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.36	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.25	0	11%	0
PHI J. Gaucher	1.0	0	0.13	0	8%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	1	0.21	0	10%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.9	0	0.11	0	2%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.11	0	6%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	0	0.12	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.23	1	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.08	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.4	1	0.18	1	8%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.