Game Recap: PHI 4, MTL 1, December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI4

FinalTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

MTL1

PHI beat MTL 4-1, with the chances close: 2.26 expected goals to 2.68. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Vladar stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	2	1	4
MTL	1	0	0	1

1st 19:00MTLA. Texier0.17 xG
1st 19:39PHIC. Grundstrom0.13 xG
2nd 6:26PHIT. Zegras0.22 xG
2nd 19:10PHIB. Brink0.21 xG
3rd 18:25PHIT. KonecnyEN0.42 xG

Team Stats

PHIMTL

21Shots on goal22

2.26Expected goals2.68

38Shot attempts57

155v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play0/1

23Hits21

13Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways8

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.26 xGMTL 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI20 on goal, 4 scored

MTL22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Couturier	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	2	19:18	3:19
T. Konecny	RW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	17:50	2:43
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:55	2:47
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:54	0:00
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	16:37	2:10
B. Brink	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	16:08	3:17
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	15:38	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:06	3:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:25	2:41
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:18	0:11
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:31	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	9:16	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:13	0:38
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+2	0	22:20	3:13
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:51	2:58
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:48	2:55
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+2	0	19:18	0:08
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	15:43	0:03
A. Texier	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	-1	0	15:24	0:35
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	1	5	0	0	2	13:56	0:03
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:02	1:25
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	17:56	1:26
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:06	1:26
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:20	0:31
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:14	1:24
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	15:33	0:31
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	10:42	0:34
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:22	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	7:24	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	27:06	1:23
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-1	0	24:58	0:36
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	18:17	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:42	0:03
A. Engstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:45	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	20	17	3	.850	58:09	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier14:40C. Grundstrom14:07O. Tippett14:02

Line 2C. Dvorak14:51T. Zegras14:27T. Konecny14:08

Line 3B. Brink12:51M. Michkov11:06N. Cates11:26

Line 4N. Deslauriers9:31R. Abols10:26G. Hathaway8:43

Pair 1E. Andrae17:35J. Drysdale17:53

Pair 2N. Seeler15:45R. Ristolainen17:20

Pair 3T. Sanheim17:06C. York14:48

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:59Z. Bolduc14:50C. Caufield14:01

Line 2I. Demidov14:51J. Slafkovský13:11O. Kapanen13:13

Line 3A. Texier14:37J. Evans12:03J. Anderson11:18

Line 4B. Gallagher9:56J. Veleno8:54O. Beck7:24

Pair 1A. Engstrom15:07A. Xhekaj15:21

Pair 2A. Carrier15:13L. Hutson21:22

Pair 3J. Struble14:46N. Dobson18:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChristian Dvorak PHI Faces MTL, his team until Apr 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, MTL 3.1	PHI 4, MTL 1
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	PHI 25.3, MTL 24.8	PHI 21, MTL 22
Win chance	MTL 55%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	2.8	3	0.86	0	34%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	0	0.64	1	26%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.3	1	0.83	1	26%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	3	0.83	2	27%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	1	1.01	0	29%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	1	0.61	1	22%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	0	0.61	0	13%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	4	0.59	2	18%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.8	3	0.28	1	15%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	1	0.63	0	22%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	0	0.53	0	19%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	1	0.37	0	8%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.7	1	0.49	0	21%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	1	0.47	0	11%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.6	3	0.48	0	21%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	1	0.55	1	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	2	0.50	1	18%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.5	3	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	3	0.87	0	10%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.4	3	0.41	1	17%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	1	0.33	1	17%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.43	0	10%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.3	0	0.27	1	5%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.2	1	0.68	0	18%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	0	0.19	0	10%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.39	1	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	0	0.34	0	6%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	1	0.32	0	7%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	0	0.12	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	1	0.20	0	11%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	1	0.11	0	6%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.8	2	0.13	0	7%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	0	0.22	0	4%	0
MTL A. Engstrom	0.6	0	0.12	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.