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Game Recap
PHI3
NSH1
PHI beat NSH 3-1, with the chances close: 3.39 expected goals to 3.88. T. Konecny led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Vladar stopped 23 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| NSH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:44NSHR. O'Reilly0.12 xG
- 2nd 4:43PHIM. Michkov0.15 xG
- 2nd 17:37PHIN. Cates0.33 xG
- 3rd 18:47PHIT. KonecnyEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
PHINSH
26Shots on goal24
3.39Expected goals3.88
47Shot attempts66
235v5 shots on goal22
0/1Power play0/3
24Hits22
17Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways22
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 3.39 xGNSH 3.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:54 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:54 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:54 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:06 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:54 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:23 | 1:06 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:06 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:06 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 24:55 | 0:54 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 1:06 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 26:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 3:35 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 3:17 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:23 | 3:25 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:43 | 2:40 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:56 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:38 | 2:26 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:14 | 2:43 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 2:34 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| O. Wiesblatt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:10 | 2:23 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:06 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:05 | 3:39 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:16 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 58:06 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1O. Tippett15:25T. Zegras15:09C. Dvorak14:20
Line 2S. Couturier16:17B. Brink14:14M. Michkov11:58
Line 3T. Konecny13:39N. Cates10:55N. Grebenkin8:26
Line 4N. Deslauriers10:02R. Abols9:26G. Hathaway9:59
Pair 1T. Sanheim19:53C. York19:37
Pair 2N. Seeler17:59J. Drysdale19:08
Pair 3N. Juulsen12:48E. Andrae11:15
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos14:43J. Marchessault13:27E. Haula12:32
Line 2L. Evangelista14:49F. Forsberg13:54R. O'Reilly13:52
Line 3M. McCarron11:34T. Jost11:17O. Wiesblatt10:58
Line 4M. Bunting11:19M. Wood10:47F. Svechkov10:57
Pair 1N. Hague19:30N. Blankenburg17:59
Pair 3J. Barron15:36S. Stastney13:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.8, NSH 3.1 | PHI 3, NSH 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 25.9, NSH 27.5 | PHI 26, NSH 24 |
| Win chance | NSH 55% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 2 | 1.02 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.5 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 2 | 0.86 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.1 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.7 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.6 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH O. Wiesblatt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.5 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.