Game Recap: PHI 4, NYI 3 (SO), November 28, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI4

Final/SOFri, Nov 28, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

PHI beat NYI 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.03 expected goals to 4.01. NYI outshot PHI 31 to 21. M. Schaefer led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Horvat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Ersson stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	2	1	0	1	4
NYI	0	3	0	0	3

1st 8:30PHIT. Foerster0.09 xG
1st 8:52PHIS. Couturier0.13 xG
2nd 1:55PHIT. ZegrasPP0.05 xG
2nd 5:42NYIE. Heineman0.11 xG
2nd 8:11NYIM. Schaefer0.06 xG
2nd 19:13NYIA. LeePP0.13 xG

Team Stats

PHINYI

21Shots on goal31

2.03Expected goals4.01

40Shot attempts70

135v5 shots on goal21

1/2Power play1/5

20Hits17

18Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways15

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.03 xGNYI 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI18 on goal, 3 scored

NYI29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:19	1:50
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	2	17:53	1:16
S. Couturier	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:36	0:58
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	4	15:56	2:11
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	17:57	1:38
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	17:37	1:24
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:36	0:00
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	15:05	1:54
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	12:33	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:17	1:54
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	10:16	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	9:45	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:01	1:03
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	26:34	2:07
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	-1	0	24:46	1:20
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:40	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	+1	0	16:59	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+2	0	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	31	28	3	.903	65:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	22:19	5:04
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	18:24	2:23
A. Lee	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:48	5:37
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:40	3:46
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:37	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9:25	2:33
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	2	24:41	7:07
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	23:17	7:21
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:42	1:59
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:05	1:06
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	10:53	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	2	9:56	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	1	2	1	0	4	+1	0	28:53	6:41
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	20:45	0:10
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	23:28	0:24
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:20	2:29
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:43	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	21	18	3	.857	65:00	OT loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny13:21N. Cates12:25T. Foerster12:12

Line 2C. Dvorak12:01T. Zegras14:42O. Tippett11:44

Line 3S. Couturier11:34M. Michkov12:39B. Brink10:23

Line 4R. Abols9:40N. Grebenkin9:45G. Hathaway9:40

Pair 1J. Drysdale17:58E. Andrae17:12

Pair 2T. Sanheim16:19C. York16:29

Pair 3N. Seeler13:48N. Juulsen11:33

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat13:52E. Heineman13:53M. Shabanov13:51

Line 2M. Barzal13:35J. Drouin12:56A. Lee12:07

Line 3C. Ritchie11:59S. Holmstrom12:04A. Duclair10:37

Line 4C. Cizikas9:44K. MacLean9:32

Pair 1A. Pelech19:40T. DeAngelo14:51

Pair 2R. Pulock17:40M. Schaefer16:57

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:19T. Mitchell9:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, NYI 3.2	PHI 4, NYI 3
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	PHI 24.9, NYI 28.2	PHI 21, NYI 31
Win chance	NYI 60%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	6	0.89	0	35%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	2	1.06	0	28%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.7	1	0.68	2	18%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.5	2	0.63	1	27%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	1	0.58	0	24%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.4	0	0.75	1	30%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	0	0.77	0	26%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	1	0.70	1	23%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	2	0.59	1	21%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	1	0.54	1	26%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	2	0.51	1	15%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	1	0.48	0	10%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	2	0.52	0	18%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.6	4	0.53	1	24%	1
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	3	0.83	1	20%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	1	0.36	0	8%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	0	0.48	0	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	1	0.47	0	16%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	2	0.30	0	4%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.3	3	0.46	1	17%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.2	3	0.26	0	14%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.35	1	7%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.18	0	10%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	2	0.34	0	7%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	3	0.20	1	3%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	1	0.36	0	7%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.0	0	0.47	0	20%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	2	0.19	0	3%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.0	1	0.33	1	17%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.20	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	2	0.19	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.6	1	0.08	0	1%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	0	0.19	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.