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Game Recap
PHI4
FinalFri, Apr 3, 2026Every game that night
NYI1

PHI beat NYI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 2.27. M. Michkov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Vladar stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PHI2114
NYI0101
  1. 1st 13:54PHIO. Tippett0.24 xG
  2. 1st 15:01PHIA. Bump0.01 xG
  3. 2nd 2:52PHIM. Michkov0.02 xG
  4. 2nd 15:37NYIJ. Pageau0.20 xG
  5. 3rd 9:16PHIT. Sanheim0.08 xG

Team Stats

PHINYI
21Shots on goal22
3.60Expected goals2.27
44Shot attempts63
175v5 shots on goal15
0/2Power play0/3
25Hits26
23Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes4
13Giveaways13
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.60 xGNYI 2.27 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdPHI goal, 13:54PHI goal, 15:01PHI goal, 2:52NYI goal, 15:37PHI goal, 9:16

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI21 on goal, 4 scored
NYI22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. MichkovRW123300+3211:432:13
A. BumpLW112102+309:090:00
O. TippettRW1013320017:332:17
N. CatesLW011130+3016:062:11
S. CouturierC0002410021:080:00
C. DvorakC0003020017:181:39
T. KonecnyRW0001110215:181:46
P. MartoneRW0001200015:132:17
T. FoersterRW0002010015:061:43
L. GlendeningC0000210215:030:00
G. HathawayRW0000410013:030:00
T. ZegrasC0000000011:031:46
T. SanheimD112302+3024:360:49
C. YorkD000022+1023:110:00
R. RistolainenD000014+3022:021:56
J. DrysdaleD0001000018:551:23
N. SeelerD0000140017:260:00
N. JuulsenD000020-1010:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar22211.95560:00Win
S. Ersson000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BarzalC011100-1024:065:13
S. HolmstromRW011300+1020:091:03
J. PageauC101100+1020:011:04
B. HorvatC000401-1022:094:57
A. LeeLW000310-1017:372:34
E. HeinemanLW000140-2015:532:21
C. RitchieC000000-2015:083:09
B. SchennC000020-3014:513:10
C. CizikasC0000310012:040:00
K. MacLeanC0001510011:150:00
M. GatcombC0001100210:380:00
O. PalatLW000030-109:490:00
M. SchaeferD000223-3028:434:51
R. PulockD000214-2019:280:16
A. BoqvistD000100-2017:400:53
A. PelechD0001200217:280:29
S. MayfieldD0000100013:300:00
C. SoucyD000110+1012:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin21174.81052:50Loss
D. Rittich000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier13:22L. Glendening10:55G. Hathaway11:05
Line 2C. Dvorak10:53T. Konecny11:18P. Martone11:55
Line 3O. Tippett11:24T. Foerster11:29T. Zegras8:13
Line 4N. Cates10:23A. Bump8:39M. Michkov8:46
Pair 1R. Ristolainen15:02T. Sanheim16:01
Pair 2J. Drysdale16:34C. York15:00
Pair 3N. Seeler13:04N. Juulsen10:07

NYI

Line 1J. Pageau13:12S. Holmstrom13:23M. Barzal13:50
Line 2C. Cizikas10:38K. MacLean11:15M. Gatcomb10:38
Line 3A. Lee10:57B. Horvat11:21E. Heineman10:37
Line 4B. Schenn7:48C. Ritchie7:57O. Palat7:03
Pair 1A. Boqvist13:35M. Schaefer19:01
Pair 2A. Pelech15:33R. Pulock14:59
Pair 3S. Mayfield11:36C. Soucy10:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.6, NYI 3.3PHI 4, NYI 1
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalPHI 25.0, NYI 27.2PHI 21, NYI 22
Win chanceNYI 61%PHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.140.88036%0
PHI O. Tippett2.830.58126%1
NYI M. Schaefer2.720.85023%0
NYI A. Lee2.330.60026%0
PHI T. Konecny2.310.81028%0
NYI M. Barzal2.210.93124%0
NYI E. Heineman2.010.44024%0
PHI T. Zegras2.000.68023%0
PHI M. Michkov1.930.53319%1
PHI C. Dvorak1.830.55019%0
PHI T. Foerster1.720.45023%0
PHI R. Ristolainen1.600.3406%0
NYI B. Schenn1.600.67024%0
NYI A. Pelech1.510.3005%0
PHI N. Cates1.410.47117%0
PHI S. Couturier1.320.33011%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.300.57021%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.330.58124%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.310.3408%0
PHI A. Bump1.310.36214%1
PHI T. Sanheim1.230.3829%1
NYI R. Pulock1.220.3406%0
NYI J. Pageau1.110.51118%1
PHI C. York1.100.2805%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.000.26012%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.010.20012%0
NYI O. Palat0.900.28013%0
PHI N. Seeler0.900.1303%0
NYI C. Soucy0.910.2207%0
NYI A. Boqvist0.810.2807%0
PHI L. Glendening0.800.1307%0
NYI K. MacLean0.810.1808%0
PHI G. Hathaway0.700.1609%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.700.1604%0
PHI N. Juulsen0.500.1102%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.