Game Recap: PHI 4, NYR 5 (SO), December 20, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI4

Final/SOSat, Dec 20, 2025Every game that night

NYR5

NYR beat PHI 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.42 expected goals to 2.89. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Panarin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. I. Shesterkin stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	0	4	0	0	4
NYR	1	1	2	1	5

1st 19:24NYRA. Panarin0.13 xG
2nd 6:42PHIT. SanheimPP0.09 xG
2nd 7:05PHIO. Tippett0.05 xG
2nd 10:18PHIT. ZegrasPP0.07 xG
2nd 12:23NYRA. Panarin0.02 xG
2nd 14:36PHIR. AbolsSH0.15 xG
3rd 9:13NYRV. Trocheck0.21 xG
3rd 17:26NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.08 xG

Team Stats

PHINYR

32Shots on goal27

2.89Expected goals2.42

52Shot attempts65

245v5 shots on goal20

2/5Power play1/4

19Hits23

21Blocked shots4

13Penalty minutes15

9Giveaways21

1Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.89 xGNYR 2.42 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI32 on goal, 4 scored

NYR27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Barkey	C	0	2	2	2	1	2	0	0	15:18	1:15
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	22:58	5:04
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:19	2:07
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:01	1:21
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:04	2:46
R. Abols	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	11:57	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	23:31	5:02
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	19:58	1:22
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:14	2:09
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:29	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	11:27	0:00
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	7	6:08	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	20:56	1:19
C. York	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	22:57	4:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:40	2:19
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	-1	2	23:05	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	19:09	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	2	17:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	27	23	4	.852	65:00	OT loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	0	22:50	4:36
A. Panarin	LW	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	4	22:31	5:24
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	25:38	4:26
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	18:44	3:45
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	2	16:46	2:19
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:31	1:38
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	18:24	0:54
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	16:03	2:03
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:26	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	8:28	0:02
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4:56	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	4:51	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	2	20:12	4:26
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	28:56	2:11
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	25:12	0:14
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	17:28	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:01	0:12
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	32	28	4	.875	64:59	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier13:45O. Tippett14:16D. Barkey12:52

Line 2T. Konecny15:00T. Zegras17:21N. Grebenkin11:27

Line 3N. Cates13:01B. Brink13:05M. Michkov12:09

Line 4R. Abols9:57C. Grundstrom10:57N. Deslauriers6:08

Pair 1E. Andrae18:03J. Drysdale18:33

Pair 2N. Seeler15:43R. Ristolainen20:14

Pair 3T. Sanheim13:50C. York14:04

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin16:06A. Lafrenière16:13M. Zibanejad14:47

Line 2V. Trocheck16:48J. Miller13:05G. Perreault13:53

Line 3N. Laba13:02W. Cuylle13:43C. Sheary14:52

Line 4S. Carrick7:52M. Rempe4:56B. Othmann4:51

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:42B. Schneider19:46

Pair 2C. Soucy14:13W. Borgen13:42

Pair 3M. Robertson15:46S. Morrow15:08

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.4, NYR 2.9	PHI 4, NYR 5
Total goals	5.4	9
Shots on goal	PHI 25.0, NYR 25.5	PHI 32, NYR 27
Win chance	NYR 59%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	7	1.25	2	37%	2
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	3	0.92	2	30%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	2	0.60	1	24%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	4	0.92	1	30%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.3	0	1.10	1	33%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	2	0.75	1	24%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	3	0.77	0	25%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	2	0.58	1	20%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	2.0	1	0.29	0	15%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	1	0.59	1	24%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	3	0.54	0	16%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	0	0.64	0	25%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.47	1	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.48	0	16%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	3	0.25	0	5%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	2	0.39	2	9%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	0	0.45	0	10%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	1	0.39	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	0	0.30	0	8%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	2	0.19	0	3%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.37	1	8%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.2	4	0.26	1	5%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	1	0.24	0	3%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	2	0.33	0	15%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	0	0.24	0	6%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	2	0.16	1	8%	1
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	0	0.14	0	7%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	2	0.29	1	6%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.0	0	0.24	1	13%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	2	0.22	0	7%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	3	0.19	0	8%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.8	0	0.09	0	6%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.6	2	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.