Game Recap: PHI 3, NYR 2 (OT), February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/OTThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

NYR2

PHI beat NYR 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.06. M. Michkov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Grundstrom had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. S. Ersson stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	0	1	1	1	3
NYR	1	1	0	0	2

1st 9:56NYRS. Carrick0.01 xG
2nd 1:23NYRA. Lafrenière0.20 xG
2nd 10:25PHIM. MichkovPP0.19 xG
3rd 0:39PHIT. Zegras0.15 xG
OT 2:10PHIM. Michkov0.08 xG

Team Stats

PHINYR

24Shots on goal24

2.71Expected goals2.06

51Shot attempts49

145v5 shots on goal18

1/5Power play0/3

23Hits23

11Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes15

15Giveaways9

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.71 xGNYR 2.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI23 on goal, 3 scored

NYR22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	0	2	14:02	3:19
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	20:17	6:04
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:12	6:05
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	18:45	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	-1	0	15:29	4:08
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	15:24	3:17
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:00	5:12
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:45	4:38
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:54	3:05
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:08	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	10:23	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	7	9:09	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	23:39	1:36
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:35	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	22:19	4:20
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:46	0:11
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:33	4:55
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	24	22	2	.917	61:40	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	0	2	21:36	4:17
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	18:05	1:11
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	15:25	2:22
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	9:49	0:00
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	5	7:57	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	21:34	4:24
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	21:08	4:30
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:09	0:54
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:52	0:54
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	12:50	0:00
B. Brisson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:21	1:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	9:23	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	0	18:58	0:13
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	24:57	4:17
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	23:10	1:05
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	+2	0	22:34	0:02
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	17:29	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	21	3	.875	61:42	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak12:15T. Zegras13:54T. Konecny12:43

Line 2S. Couturier14:28O. Tippett11:39D. Barkey10:49

Line 3C. Grundstrom10:06N. Grebenkin11:23G. Hathaway8:20

Line 4N. Cates9:53M. Michkov10:11B. Brink10:50

Pair 1R. Ristolainen18:15T. Sanheim17:12

Pair 2J. Drysdale16:21C. York14:02

Pair 3N. Seeler13:24E. Andrae11:50

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:20G. Perreault13:29J. Miller14:29

Line 2V. Trocheck12:55A. Lafrenière12:38W. Cuylle12:16

Line 3C. Sheary10:41B. Brisson10:08N. Laba10:53

Line 4T. Raddysh8:21B. Othmann8:30S. Carrick7:40

Pair 1V. Gavrikov16:11A. Fox17:43

Pair 2W. Borgen14:36B. Schneider17:04

Pair 3M. Robertson13:48V. Iorio11:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, NYR 3.3	PHI 3, NYR 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	PHI 25.6, NYR 24.8	PHI 24, NYR 24
Win chance	NYR 59%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	3	1.08	0	34%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	1	0.58	1	24%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.3	1	0.90	1	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.2	0	1.14	0	34%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	2	0.57	2	20%	2
NYR V. Trocheck	2.1	1	0.94	1	29%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	1	0.71	1	23%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	2.0	0	0.64	0	20%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	1	0.55	1	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	2	0.96	0	16%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	1	0.66	1	24%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.6	0	0.43	1	12%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	0	0.25	0	4%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.48	0	12%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	1	0.52	0	18%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.4	5	0.45	1	16%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.4	0	0.39	0	16%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	3	0.37	0	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	3	0.29	0	8%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.3	5	0.23	0	13%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.34	1	8%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	0	0.36	0	14%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	4	0.31	0	9%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.15	1	3%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	0	0.36	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.23	1	6%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	0	0.15	0	9%	0
NYR B. Brisson	0.9	1	0.28	0	10%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.29	1	12%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	1
NYR N. Laba	0.8	2	0.31	0	12%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	1	0.27	0	10%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.7	0	0.16	0	2%	0
NYR V. Iorio	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	1	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.