Game Recap: PHI 1, SEA 4, December 28, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI1

FinalSun, Dec 28, 2025Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat PHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.91. PHI outshot SEA 33 to 20. E. Tolvanen led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Drysdale had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. P. Grubauer stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	0	1	1
SEA	0	1	3	4

2nd 3:48SEAJ. Eberle0.21 xG
3rd 5:49SEAC. Stephenson0.16 xG
3rd 17:31SEAE. TolvanenEN0.96 xG
3rd 18:03PHIC. Grundstrom0.02 xG
3rd 18:24SEAE. TolvanenEN0.73 xG

Team Stats

PHISEA

33Shots on goal20

2.91Expected goals2.61

66Shot attempts42

245v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/0

16Hits18

16Blocked shots17

0Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.91 xGSEA 2.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI32 on goal, 1 scored

SEA18 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
R. Abols	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	13:27	0:06
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	12:25	0:02
C. Grundstrom	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:24	0:04
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	21:04	4:06
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	19:21	4:01
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	17:38	2:03
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	16:45	3:56
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	15:52	3:56
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	14:52	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-2	14:21	2:01
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	14:19	1:20
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:52	0:22
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-2	23:22	4:21
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	19:25	0:04
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	19:25	1:59
C. York	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	18:57	1:34
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	+1	18:03	0:05
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	18	16	2	.889	58:23	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Tolvanen	RW	2	1	3	4	4	1	+3	0	17:58	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+3	0	17:56	0:00
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:08	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:03	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:18	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	0	16:35	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	13:38	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:27	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:27	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:06	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	10:22	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	8:40	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	+3	0	24:11	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:48	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:43	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:08	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:58	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	2	18:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny13:58T. Zegras15:47C. Dvorak14:02

Line 2S. Couturier12:48O. Tippett13:58D. Barkey12:48

Line 3R. Abols13:16C. Grundstrom12:15N. Grebenkin12:18

Line 4N. Cates11:56B. Brink12:39M. Michkov11:20

Pair 1N. Seeler17:58R. Ristolainen19:21

Pair 2T. Sanheim16:39C. York16:36

Pair 3J. Drysdale18:11E. Andrae16:05

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:54M. Beniers16:40K. Kakko15:18

Line 2J. McCann13:17S. Wright13:17B. Catton13:38

Line 3F. Gaudreau12:47E. Tolvanen13:54C. Stephenson13:17

Line 4J. Melanson10:22B. Meyers10:08T. Kartye8:23

Pair 1A. Larsson19:10V. Dunn19:37

Pair 2J. Oleksiak16:44R. Evans17:55

Pair 3C. Fleury16:48R. Lindgren14:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, SEA 2.9	PHI 1, SEA 4
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	PHI 26.6, SEA 25.4	PHI 33, SEA 20
Win chance	SEA 52%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	4	0.61	0	25%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.4	2	0.78	0	30%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	3	0.83	0	27%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	1	0.78	0	25%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	2	0.67	1	25%	1
PHI C. Grundstrom	2.0	2	0.31	1	17%	1
PHI M. Michkov	1.9	4	0.58	0	21%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	0	0.63	0	14%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	4	0.62	3	25%	2
PHI S. Couturier	1.8	2	0.55	0	16%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	1	0.59	1	22%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.49	0	18%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	3	0.52	0	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.6	1	0.49	0	17%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	2	0.25	0	4%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	1	0.38	0	8%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	0	0.45	1	17%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.72	2	22%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	0	0.45	0	20%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.47	0	19%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.20	0	3%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	3	0.34	0	9%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	4	0.39	0	8%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.2	1	0.24	1	10%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	3	0.34	0	7%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.0	1	0.14	0	3%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.0	1	0.30	0	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.28	0	5%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.9	1	0.20	0	11%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.33	0	7%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.23	1	10%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.7	1	0.13	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.