Game Recap: PHI 4, SJS 1, March 21, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI4

FinalSat, Mar 21, 2026Every game that night

SJS1

PHI beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.05 expected goals to 2.46. C. Dvorak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Orlov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Vladar stopped 24 of 25.

Team Stats

PHISJS

28Shots on goal25

5.05Expected goals2.46

53Shot attempts57

175v5 shots on goal18

1/5Power play1/4

23Hits19

17Blocked shots10

16Penalty minutes20

11Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 5.05 xGSJS 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI26 on goal, 3 scored

SJS25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	2	4	1	1	+2	0	25:32	4:27
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	23:31	5:31
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+3	0	20:11	2:02
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	4	19:53	6:31
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	4	0	2	+2	5	18:11	4:04
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:20	6:25
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:29	3:02
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:39	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	8:55	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
G. Wilson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	8:06	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	28:57	2:08
N. Juulsen	D	0	1	1	0	5	2	+1	0	8:53	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	24:39	5:17
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	19:34	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	17:12	3:16
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:25	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5:24	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	25	24	1	.960	58:25	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	6	2	0	-2	2	24:31	5:49
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-2	2	22:05	5:18
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	24:24	5:14
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-2	0	22:49	5:17
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	19:22	1:33
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:53	1:38
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	11:39	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:49	1:37
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	9:48	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	9:38	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	9:28	1:06
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0:19	0:00
D. Orlov	D	1	0	1	4	1	2	-2	0	24:52	5:18
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	20:28	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	17:07	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:51	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:44	1:35
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	26	24	2	.923	58:43	Loss
L. Brossoit	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak16:29T. Konecny14:55A. Bump10:27

Line 2N. Cates10:54M. Michkov10:32C. Grundstrom7:12

Line 3O. Tippett14:00T. Zegras11:47N. Grebenkin7:23

Line 4G. Wilson8:06G. Hathaway7:56

Pair 1R. Ristolainen16:14T. Sanheim19:35

Pair 2C. York13:52J. Drysdale13:25

Pair 3N. Seeler11:43N. Juulsen8:38

SJS

Line 1W. Smith15:34M. Celebrini16:41A. Wennberg13:23

Line 2W. Eklund13:41M. Misa15:55K. Sherwood14:52

Line 3B. Goodrow6:56Z. Ostapchuk6:47A. Gaudette9:12

Pair 1D. Orlov17:35J. Klingberg14:26

Pair 2M. Ferraro14:18S. Mukhamadullin13:10

Pair 3N. Leddy10:42S. Dickinson11:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.0, SJS 3.0	PHI 4, SJS 1
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	PHI 25.4, SJS 25.5	PHI 28, SJS 25
Win chance	SJS 52%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	6	1.32	1	37%	0
PHI O. Tippett	3.1	5	0.77	1	32%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.5	3	1.07	1	34%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	2	0.71	1	25%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.2	1	0.55	0	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	3	0.82	1	27%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	5	0.84	0	28%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	2.0	4	0.70	2	23%	1
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	0	0.63	1	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	0	0.35	0	6%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.6	1	0.31	0	17%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.5	2	0.54	0	19%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	4	0.56	1	19%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.5	1	0.57	0	22%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	1	0.48	0	11%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.3	2	0.55	0	19%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	0	0.41	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.48	1	11%	1
SJS J. Klingberg	1.2	0	0.41	0	10%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	2	0.34	0	18%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.2	0	0.44	0	15%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	1	0.28	0	7%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.28	0	4%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.59	0	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.1	4	0.44	1	9%	1
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.27	0	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.18	0	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	1	0.21	0	11%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.13	0	7%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.28	0	10%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	0	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	0	0.13	1	2%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	0	0.16	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.11	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.